Budget

Budget Surplus

2018-19 (the current year): deficit of $4.2 billion ($5.2 billion in MYEFO)

2019-20: surplus of $7.1 billion (up from $4.1 billion in December MYEFO)

2020-21: $11 billion (down from $12.5 billion in MYEFO)

Spending

2018-19: $482.7 billion (down from $483.4 billion in MYEFO); 24.9% of GDP

2019-20: $493.3 billion ($497.4 billion in MYEFO); 24.6% of GDP

2020-21: $511.3 billion ($513.0 billion in MYEFO); 24.6% of GDP

Tax*

2018-19: $448.8.1 billion ($447.6 billion in MYEFO, $440.5 billion in last year’s budget); 23.1% of GDP

2019-20: $466.4 billion ($466.6 billion in MYEFO, $465.5 billion in last year’s budget); 23.3% of GDP

2020-21: $486.4 billion ($491.2 in MYEFO, $491 billion in last year’s budget); 23.4% of GDP

*doesn’t include other revenue

Economic forecasts for 2019-20

GDP: 2.75% (down from 3% in MYEFO); 2.75% in 2020-21 (also down from 3%)

Unemployment rate: 5% all the way to 2022-23 (unchanged)

CPI: 2.25% (unchanged)

Nominal GDP: 3.25% (3.5%)

Terms of trade: -5.25% (-6%)

Household consumption: 2.75% (3%)

Dwelling investment -7% (-4%)

Wage price index: 2.75% (down from 3%)

Business investment: 5% (unchanged)

Peter Fray

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Editor-in-chief of Crikey

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