Seventeen days on, with yesterday’s resolution of counting for the Legislative Council, the real winner of the Victorian election can now be confirmed.
His name is Glenn Druery, staffer to Senator Derryn Hinch and preference manipulator extraordinaire.
Druery’s achievements on this occasion put all his previous efforts into the shade, with micro-parties — taken to mean everyone other than Labor, Liberal, Nationals and Greens — accounting for fully a quarter of the members in the 40-seat chamber.
Not all of them are formally part of the Druery preference network — certainly not Fiona Patten, of what was once the Sex Party and is now the Reason Party, who lodged a police complaint about Druery’s activities during the campaign.
However, it would seem that at least half of them are, and they can shortly expect to be invoiced for Druery’s reported $50,000 “success fee”.
Druery will also be in the good books with his boss, as three of the seats have gone to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, which can now single-handedly deliver Labor the numbers it needs to pass contentious legislation.
In fairness to the micro-parties, they can claim the support of more than one in five upper house voters as a collective, with the Hinch party especially achieving its victories from fairly creditable shares of the vote (from 4.5% in Western Victoria region to 6.8% in Western Metropolitan).
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers also polled well enough to claim a genuine mandate from country voters, and, if anything, can feel peeved that they only have one seat to show for their efforts.
On the whole though, the result is yet another indictment of a system that puts a higher premium on opaque backroom deals than the conscious intentions of voters — and without question, the main victims of the injustice are the Greens.
It’s not currently fashionable to lend a sympathetic ear to the Greens’ excuse-making for their poor performance, which has seen their upper house representation slashed from five seats to one, as some of it was undoubtedly down to the internal dramas that crippled their campaign.
Nonetheless, the Greens outpolled every micro-party, in most cases by substantial margins, in seven of the eight regions (the exception being Shooters, Fishers and Farmers’ highly creditable 7.9% in Northern Victoria, which nonetheless failed to win them a seat there).
The most egregious case was the defeat of Sue Pennicuik in Southern Metropolitan region, whose 13.5% vote share compared with 1.3% for the winning candidate of the anti-immigration Sustainable Australia party.
In terms of votes received, the Greens’ performance overall wasn’t nearly as bad as advertised; their vote share in the inner-city seats grew for the fifth election in a row, helping deliver three seats in the lower house, their best result yet at a general election.
However, the devastating upper house result raises questions as to whether a focus on increasing its lower house footprint is ultimately in the party’s own best interests.
While preference harvesting was the main culprit, a drop in support in suburban Melbourne also played its part, and could well be seen as a consequence of prioritising inner-city seats and the youthful demographic that dominates them.
For all the prestige attached to the lower house, winning seats there only delivers real influence in the unusual circumstance of a hung parliament — something Labor managed to avoid at this election in rather spectacular style.
It’s in the upper house that legislation will stand or fall over the next four years, and here the Greens now carry a third as much influence as Derryn Hinch’s party, and — as David Leyonhjelm was quick to gloat about yesterday — half as much as the Liberal Democrats.
As for Labor, it emerges with a multiplicity of potential pathways in securing the three extra votes it needs in addition to its own representation of 18 seats, including a left-of-centre bloc consisting of the Greens, Fiona Patten and Animal Justice — and perhaps also with a sense that the system isn’t quite as badly in need of reform as it may seem to the rest of us.
20 thoughts on “Greens toppled by preference whispering”
Metal Guru
December 12, 2018 at 12:42 pmHa Ha. Suck shit Greens! The facts speak for themselves as do the election results. The Greens find foul with everything as they are perennial whingers. In this conversation let me say firstly to the Greens by way of constructive debate. Appeal to a mass of people! Target the broader public not niche issues and bitchy talking points of relevance mainly to the inner city armchair set. Facts: the Greens vote in the lower house fell by 0.75% however it fell in the upper house by 1.5%. This is what micro parties do, chip away at the vote of all the major and minor parties and it is telling that the Greens are a true Marxist and anti-democratic and anti-freedom party. I know this and others can realise this from an analysis of their history in NSW. That is why they did a Judas style deal with the Libs federally to change the voting preferential deal in the Senate, so that they could dominate. Let’s fuck the Greens nationally as well. Don’t vote for them federally in the upper house. Vote micro parties instead. So for the Greens to improve their vote and moral community standing, they should develop policies that appeal to the broader electorate. The Labor party in Victoria has and is going ahead with increased health services, large rail infrastructure works especially in the south east to Frankston, attention to education issues and have stolen the Greens mantle in Injecting rooms and Safe Schools. I contrast the effective Labor party in NSW with their dysfunctional counterparts in NSW. ’ll never vote for them again and would probably only support them in QLD because of their support for protection of the GBR. Vic. State Greens care more about federal issues than state issues and that is their fundamental downfall. Not the only one but the main fundamental one. That’s all for the moment.
Howard
December 12, 2018 at 4:37 pmWhat a load of self serving nonsense. What’s that saying? “Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall.”
We are looking at just one state election here and you just can’t contain yourself. We understand your pain at our current state of politics and the public’s belief that there is no policy difference between Labor and the LNP. However, this is no reason to draw the wrong conclusion from an electoral system that is able to be easily manipulated so that the will of the electorate is not necessarily represented. For example, as Bowe rightly indicates in relation to Southern Metropolitan region, whose 13.5% vote share compared with 1.3% for the winning candidate of the anti-immigration Sustainable Australia party. So according to your convoluted logic this would mean that the majority of the electorate is anti immigration.
“Appeal to a mass of people! Target the broader public not niche issues and bitchy talking points of relevance mainly to the inner city armchair set.” Oh yeah, like the micro parties you recommend such as the Reason Party (formerly the Sex Party), Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Sustainable Australia party, Liberal Democrats and the Animal Justice Party. Please advise just how these parties appeal to the broader public.
Your bias against the Greens Party is palpable, especially considering Labor’s constant capitulation to Liberal Party legislation that has so recently been identified in Crikey. And as for your “So for the Greens to improve their vote and moral community standing”, what utter bullshit. No party has been more moral regarding policy and voting than the Greens, even at the expense of their popularity. Give us a break! No one needs lecturing about morality from any of our morally bankrupt major political parties or their apparatchiks. Now just remind us again what Crikey participants response to Labor’s week kneed passing of the encryption legislation was again, I dare you. Oh yeah, this was just political posturing before the next election. Just let us know in what way this improved their moral community standing.
I’ve also no doubt that there is no political party more democratic than the Greens. Your political ignorance is unbelievable. So you know what a ‘true Marxist’ is apparently, as opposed to a false Marxist. Care to elaborate? With facts, not just conjecture and personal ‘belief’!
Your final recommendation betrays your right wing bias. Vote micro parties instead of Green. Yes, that plethora of single issue nut jobs that are just disaffected conservatives from the LNP!
No major or minor political party is going to take any of your recommendations seriously, except perhaps Glenn Druery, staffer to Senator Derryn Hinch and preference manipulator extraordinaire.
Even Bill Shorten is able to restrain himself from gloating over his chances at romping in at the next election for he knows, like so many times before, defeat can be snatched from the jaws of victory! Children overboard anybody!
Mark out West
December 12, 2018 at 5:59 pmWhat the result does say is that the major parties have all shifted to the right and have no over arching narrative to engage people with a cogent explanation as why their pay packets are slimmer and what to do about it.
As the top 1% get rich on the misuse of immigrates as can be seen via numerous scandal of underpayment in every sector of the economy, the bloated housing sector enslaving our youth to be debt slave for the rest of their lives.
As for the “anti-immigration Sustainable Australia party” how about you read their policies, they are not anti immigration but have a view that too many immigrants put too much pressure on infrastructure and the environment.
Howard
December 12, 2018 at 7:13 pmAnd their answer is to reduce immigration which we need to sustain our economy with retiring baby boomers combined with negative self replacement having a negative impact. Being proactive with infrastructure rather than reactive to deal with our congestion issues and providing incentives for people to stay or relocate to regional areas is a better policy.
Mark out West
December 13, 2018 at 12:19 pmYes as the reports of Australia roads being slower than New York, as Australia being in the top 5 countries to rid itself of biodiversity to the point where some ecologists are saying where are at or near the tipping point.
But hey despite all the negative indicators we should shackle our children and grandchildren to addressing these disasters so US BOOMER can retire in luxury.
Tobi
December 12, 2018 at 1:15 pmI wonder how much difference it would make to take the obvious action of removing above-the-line voting and leaving parties to display their preferences on their how-to-vote cards. Seems grossly undemocratic to have people casting a “vote” that they haven’t even seen for themselves, yet a lot of people currently put up with it to save themselves a few seconds at the booth after lining up for hours.
Matt
December 12, 2018 at 5:09 pmTwo unrelated factual problems in yesterday’s Crikey. I don’t think it fair to list Rebel Wilson as a bad person just because she sued for defamation from those awful magazines which print just about anything without any regard for the truth. Nor is the depiction of the Sustainable Party as an anti immigration party an accurate reflection of their goals. They are not against immigrants – they are against the rising population both here and worldwide because it is making both Australia and the world unliveable.
Howard
December 12, 2018 at 5:13 pmAustralia’s economy is sustained by immigration, especially with so many ‘baby boomers’ retiring and the need for skilled labour.
Norm
December 12, 2018 at 11:17 pmAustralia’s economy can be responsibly sustained by sustainable levels of immigration. It does not require the excessive levels demanded by global capital and its local fellow travellers. Their vested interest is not the vested interest of 85% of Australians.
Howard
December 12, 2018 at 11:37 pmScoMo has just admitted that any major reductions to our immigration rate would be accompanied by a significant budget hit. Which services and infrastructure spending would you vote to be reduced accordingly.
AR
December 13, 2018 at 6:00 amWell, if Mr Shouty sez so then it must be true.
Dog's Breakfast
December 13, 2018 at 8:40 amIncreasing immigration to account for retiring baby boomers is the very definition of a ponzi scheme Howard.
You have hit on one truth though. Immigration has been used to prop up budget numbers and has been dictated by Treasury, surely the worst department to be running immigration policy.
Barnino
December 12, 2018 at 5:32 pmIndeed William, Labor will be in no hurry to change this disgraceful upper house lunacy, given that it has severely damaged their mortal enemy, The Greens.
mark e smith
December 12, 2018 at 6:43 pmI voted for Dan, my first ALP vote in decades because he actually built what he promised. I won’t vote Greens again until they expel that Richmond SWERF which is a pity as they’re still the best green party.
No matter how you slice and dice it though something is seriously wrong when a micro can get in on a few percent against a Green 13+% Changes to the electoral system are the trickiest to enact as they require rare confluences of political opportunism and timing. Or stupidity and gullibility in the case of Turnbull’s Senate voting changes. Above the line panders to stupidity and civic laziness. There’s enough already without encouraging it. Full optional preferential is the only truly democratic method.
Arky
December 12, 2018 at 8:12 pmThe Greens got 9.25% statewide, which on a strictly proportional system would be 3.7 upper house members. But we don’t have a strictly proportional system… 12.85% isn’t close to a quota but would proooooobably get there under normal preferencing (not guaranteed, mind you because those voters putting all those right wing microparties first wouldn’t necessarily preference the Greens even if they forced to vote below the line). I don’t think there’s any other district where the Greens got enough that you’d expect they would snag the 5th seat on preferences.
Also the Greens owe the state seat of Prahran to preference harvesting to win the seat from 3rd place on primary votes, so let’s not get too high horsey about first preferences here. Preferences are a fair way to win, it’s just the argument that in this case the preferences don’t reflect the true intent of the voter (just a system that makes it easy for the vote to vote at the expense of their preferences not necessarily doing what they would expect).
The Hinches are potentially an existential threat to the Greens at state level in Victoria if they perform OK, as the Greens can only draw votes and preferences from the left of Labor, while the Hinches are basically occupying the centre ground which once belonged to the Australian Democrats and can get preferenced by EVERYBODY even if their primary vote isn’t quite as strong as the Greens.
Metal Guru
December 12, 2018 at 7:09 pmI repeat. If you want to elect a MLC, appeal to the broad base, appeal to the community and get the requisite vote. Howard’s intrusion of the encryption data issue reflects just this problem. Intruding federal elements into a State election. I agree there are massive problems with the encryption data legislation and issue but there are also massive problems in introducing this into an election around State issues and responsibilities.
I politely take exception that these Independents and micro parties are single issue nut jobs, this reflects the simplistic and dictatorial thinking of Howard and the reason that these parties come up is because parties like the Greens have neglected important issues and hence the need for single issue micro parties which through clever manipulation can preference each other. Greens pissed off? Answer- design policies that appeal. Howard has not put forward one Victorian State Greens policy issue which might. I say grow up, reject the hysteria about sour grapes and lack of representation, read my other posts on the subject of the Victorian State election and there are many issues here and bear in mind that the changes that some may seek, as witnessed in the Senate in 2016, saw the election of 4 One Nation Senators. so muh for being anti right wing. This wouldn’t have happened under the previous system of group voting. Good one Greens.
I however take great exception to the charge of being right wing. I am not right wing let me say. I am not afraid to say however that the Left have real and significant problems and have changed over the years and not for the better. The Greens are anything but democratic as the events unfolding in NSW demonstrates.
Howard
December 12, 2018 at 11:19 pmNot being a Victorian I’m not as concerned about the Victorian election as you are. However, as you were calling on everyone to “fuck the Greens nationally as well. Don’t vote for them federally in the upper house. Vote micro parties instead”, I felt obliged to respond. Consequently my criticism of Federal Labor (and it’s lack of morality) is legitimate.
You are very easily offended and methinks you protesteth too much about not being right wing. No one called you right wing. I merely indicated the reality that your recommendations to vote for micro right wing parties shows your bias and I won’t hold my breath waiting for you to point out all those broad based policies of those disaffected conservatives in the micro parties that have apparently been neglected by the Greens, and by the same argument, Labor!
As for “the simplistic and dictatorial thinking of Howard”. Just another one of your non-sequitors thrown out there without any substance or thought, betraying your lack of command of logic and the English language.
Your constant appeals to populist policies is endemic of the mainstream parties for whom power for the sake of power is the only game. Sometimes we need politicians who are prepared to make stands that are ethical, moral and in the interests of broader human rights rather than just the popular parochialism of parties like One Nation etcetera. Sometimes we need leadership from our governments and good leadership has been lacking for a considerable time.
I am not and never have been a member of any political party whereas you sound like you have party allegiance, in which case I can understand your frustration at times and your beef with the Greens. As for “reject the hysteria about sour grape”, are you arguing with yourself here. The Victorian election has had zero effect on me personally and I’ve no reason to be disappointed with the results. In fact I’m pleased the LNP lost seats. I’m not the one you should be asking about Victorian Green policy. As stated earlier, I’m only interested in policy that relates to all of us, not just Victorians.
The Left may have problems and it is incumbent on them to better deal with the world wide swing to the right over the last 20 years of neoliberalism. However, preferencing the likes of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Sustainable Australia party, Liberal Democrats and One Nation, is part of the problem, not the solution. Unless of course, you’re a right wing sympathiser.
Metal Guru
December 13, 2018 at 2:38 pmRidiculous and pompous. Sustainable, right wing? Not bloody likely. Transport Matters. tick from me. Reason. Yes to that. They are all part of the mix in the Victorian upper house and a good one. I do not protest too much about being labelled or insinuated as right wing. I have fought them every day of my life at school and at times at uni and work. I am not a vic either and I am glad the Libs lost and wished they would have lost more but the Greens have left me bitterly disillusioned. I have explained why. Please consider. Cant wait to get my teeth around the political and other issues leading into and post the NSW State election in March 2019. What a doozy. right wing for me is Lib/Nats – free market neo-liberl corporate fascism mixed with some Police state trappings. Never for me. I am not a member of Sustainable but they appela to me most at the moment so I am declaring a qualified support for them for the time being. I am big enough to understand there are other issues that need addressing and the major and minor parties are just not doing that. Cheers folks. Can’t wait for NSW.
Howard
December 13, 2018 at 4:21 pmAs I stated, I’m not particularly interested in State issues and only bought into this discussion due to your referral to the next Federal election MG. As for your ‘simplistic and dictatorial thinking’ and ‘Ridiculous and pompous’ comments, anyone can throw out insults without any substance or providing any meaningful explanation. I could make the same claims about your posts, but won’t because I can’t see any value in that form of communication, particularly in a public forum.
I do declare my ignorance of local Victorian minor/micro parties and their policies and grant you that the ‘Sustainable Australia’ party and the ‘Transport Matters’ parties do appear to have very progressive policies, unlike most of the other micro parties.
However, my concern was for your support of right wing micro parties at the Federal level at the expense of left wing parties. Consider the following: David Leyonhjelm’s Liberal Democrats, Katter’s Australian Party, Cori Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives, Australian Liberty Alliance, Democratic Labour Party (Australia), Australia First Party, Citizens Electoral Council, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, Christian Democratic Party (CDP). This is not a conclusive list as there are many more such parties.
If you live in NSW, good luck with the next election where it will basically come down to a choice between more of the same from the pro big business neoliberals and an inept labor party, still recovering from their recent political corruption. I guess this is par for the course in NSW, given that corruption arrived in NSW with the first fleet, expanded with the notorious rum corps and has been endemic in NSW policing and politics ever since.
Good luck to all Crikey contributors with the upcoming elections!
Dog's Breakfast
December 13, 2018 at 8:44 amProps to Glenn Druery. He has just exploited a stupid system. The Senate is a ridiculously undemocratic institution, moreso at Federal level.
I have voted below the line for decades, sometimes numbering 240 odd candidates, and nobody knows where my vote ended up due to the way the quotas work.
It’s a schemozzle, or my word of the year, an omnishambles.