The scenario of the federal Liberal chaos ending Australia’s best government, the NSW Liberal government of Gladys Berejiklian, has moved from nightmare to likelihood as the Liberals’ collapse into open civil war moved to centre stage following Malcolm Turnbull’s spectacular intervention over the last 24 hours.
Two separate polls on the weekend — one from Galaxy, one from Reachtel — had the NSW Coalition trailing NSW Labor on a 2PP basis. The polls had wildly different primary vote levels, and quite different preferred premier outcomes, but the best case scenario for the Liberals has new Labor leader Michael Daley on level pegging with Berejiklian as preferred premier.
That might reflect a honeymoon period for Daley — or perhaps simply relief that Luke Foley is gone from politics — but with the country about to clock off for summer and the election in March, the honeymoon could carry Daley all the way to victory. Daley has never led an election campaign before — but nor has Berejiklian. And with Scott Morrison apparently determined to save the far right’s Craig Kelly from his own party members, things aren’t going to get better any time soon for the premier.
When NSW Legislative Councillor Peter Phelps suggested weeks ago that the federal Libs should bolt to an election and get their electoral destruction out of the way so that Victorian and NSW Liberals could have a fair fight in their respective elections, it was dismissed as another of Phelpsy’s stirrings. Turns out, none other than Malcolm Turnbull — not exactly an ideological fellow-traveller of the conservative Dr Phelps — agrees. Turnbull had planned — with the agreement of then-treasurer Scott Morrison, no less — to go the polls in early March, ahead of the NSW election, in order to give Berejiklian clear air.
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Turnbull evidently feels even more strongly on that point now, telling the ABC this morning:
There is a lot of people in NSW, a lot of NSW Liberals, who believe it would be in the party’s interest for the federal government to go to an election before the NSW government set an election date of March 23 so that Gladys Berejiklian, who is leading an outstanding government of real and considerable achievement, can go to the polls and judged on her record rather than being hit by the brand damage that arose from the very destructive, pointless, shameful leadership change in Canberra on the 24th of August.
Incidentally, he might have added the constant stupidity since then, including his own pot-stirring (even if it has normally been in response to reactionary provocation).
Morrison’s desire to cling on to power for a couple more months and go to the polls in May will ensure that NSW voters go to the state poll in March with baseball bats at the ready. The result may well be the destruction of a government that has delivered more for NSW than any since Nick Greiner ended the torpid, corrupt Labor years and brought Sydney into the late-20th century.
Worse, the deeply inexperienced, development-phobic and corrupt NSW Labor Party would be back in charge just eight years after being ousted amid scandal after scandal. The consequences for the country’s biggest economy and only global city could be diabolical.
Whatever their anger about Turnbull’s intervention, federal Liberals now face a stark choice: hold on and let Berejiklian take the fall for their own spectacular failures, or maximise her chances of holding off a party that would be disastrous for NSW and the country. Turnbull’s plan was the right one. The federal Liberals must bring this shambolic circus to an end sooner rather than later. Have their civil war and moderate-versus-reactionary bloodbath in opposition, where it can’t distract from the work of government. And let Berejiklian and her team get on with earning a richly deserved third term. The fate of one third of the Australian economy depends on it.
Problem is, the federal Liberals are so self-obsessed and so clueless that such common sense appears beyond them.
How will the NSW Libs fare with a May federal election? Send us your comments and responses: boss@crikey.com.au.
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An interesting pleading article, reminiscent of the output from Murphy over at that other place, as Malcolm was in a death spiral.
As Sydney- siders struggle to work with the choice of paying mammoth tolls or enduring the worst public transport system in the country, whilst contemplating another gaggle of taxpayer sponsored sports arenas, predominantly propping up the gambling and alcohol industries, they can take solace in the fact that they are being fucked over by what the author considers the best Government in the country.
It’s not even like the rest of NSW are being in any way well served by this shithouse crew of Liberals and Nationals…to them there is nothing in NSW west of Penrith, South of the Parramatta River and North of Pittwater
Are you sure Sydney has the worst public transport? I’d have thought that dishonour goes to us up here in Newy since this marvellous state government Keane is so fond of privatised all of it save the trains. Nothing runs on time anymore, so nothing links up.
Well-said Rabid Hamster. The author obviously hasn’t had to live through the over-development, traffic congestion, loss of heritage and destruction of the environment in Sydney. WestCONnex, the stadium, light rail, plans to destroy Botany Bay for the cruise line industry, sale of public assets, mismanaged infrastructure projects….this Government has ignored the advice of planners, experts and the community to pander to their corporate donors. Enough. Time to give the ALP a chance – they have had 8 years to learn from their mistakes.
Keane a while ago stopped denying neo-liberalism even existed and has since used every opportunity to decry it … but his basic neo-liberal instincts are obvious when writing about the privatising, slashing Libs in NSW. And NSW Labor anti-development??? Serious, they have concreted over everything as enthusiastically as the Libs.
Unhinged crap. I don’t know of anyone who thinks like this. Outside of this fart bubble piece no-one knew Foley existed, so I doubt the opinion poll reflects that. The new guy Daley has at least put his foot down to stop the offensive and pointless stadium rebuilds, and removal of most of the airport train ripoff. And being gun-shy of developers, and those who love the real things is quite are relief to most of us here.
I’d consider voting for him.
NSW Labor is certainly plagued with scandal. But the NSW Libs have lost a string of MPs in similar circumstances, most recently in Wagga.
As for competence, what about the massive waste of public money on demolishing and rebuilding stadiums? And the continued farce of PPP hosptials
In what way is this government better than those in Victoria and Queensland, which have delivered public services and whose scandals (red shirts and hospital renaming) are trivial by comparison with NS. Government SA and WA are too new to be assessed properly but again don’t appear to be as corrupt as NSW.
And of course, Greiner pushed the PPP/privatisation background before going off to enrich himself in the same business. The first of many to follow that route, with immense damage resulting to Australia.
I always get a giggle out of remembering that the Kermit, the Chief Allegator, during Nifty’s reign was the first victim of the ICAC he set up specifically to go Labor. Poetic justice.
You know, it would explain A LOT if on the evening after Malcolm Turnbull was rolled from office, Turnbull drove down to Crikey’s Canberra office, rapped Bernard Keane over the head, stuffed him in a closet somewhere, and started filing updates under his byline.
I often think that Ben Pobije does that to him, given the weirdness of some of his articles but just thought that was due to the insanity of the Canberra asylum.
FFS Bernard, stop it, you’re starting to sound like Alan Jones.
We get it, someone in the ALP nicked your bike when you were 10 and then came back 8 years later to steal your first girlfriend.
The result may well be the destruction of a government that has delivered more for NSW than any since Nick Greiner ended the torpid, corrupt Labor years and brought Sydney into the late-20th century.
Worse, the deeply inexperienced, development-phobic and corrupt NSW Labor Party would be back in charge just eight years after being ousted amid scandal after scandal. The consequences for the country’s biggest economy and only global city could be diabolical.
They’ve sold off almost every single public asset left, entered into a string of dodgy hospital deals (exposed last week in Crikey), starved the TAFE system of funding, destroyed the nightlife of the CBD (and the thousands of associated jobs), introduced some of the worst planning laws in the country and ripped up the bulk of the roads in the city to build a light rail system they can’t complete and that won’t ever work.
On top of that they’ve facilitated the construction of the WestConnex freeway, that is now worth 20% of what they’ve paid for it.
Let’s not forget they’ve decided to tear down 2 perfectly functional sports stadiums that are less than 20 years old to rebuild them in exactly the same places and then lease them back to the tenants who should be paying for them to be upgraded.
Stop writing about NSW state politics, you don’t even begin to understand the actual lived reality of the people in Sydney or anywhere else in NSW.
Ahh, that’s what happened 🙂
Ok who has the key ???
Malcolm Grant, magnificently put! Bernard showing his parallel universe slip again.
I worked for the NSW Planning dept in the late Coalition/early Labor years. Undoubted corruption occurred late-on (in addition to the ongoing ‘corruption’ of favours to donors etc at which the Liberals excel, but Labor do also). However, Keane lazily/cynically claims, as is usual with this class of commentator (K. Murphly, P. Hartcher etc) that the corruption was a) the whole period and b) implies it was everyone.
It was likely as not the rot that sets in with governments that go longer than their rightful time. Labor had one term (perhaps two) too many largely because of the uselessness of the Liberals making them un-electable until things got *really* bad.