Two opinion polls with contrasting stories came out today. You can bet Newspoll, which shows the government pulling back some ground but still trailing Labor badly, 47-53, is closer to reality than the Ipsos poll from Fairfax, which showed unalloyed gloom and doom for the Liberals on 45-55.
Apart from being insufficiently frequent to offer more than a snapshot, Ipsos continues to have a problem with its estimate of the Greens vote, which it insists is 15% nationally. Newspoll -- which used to overestimate the Greens itself -- has it at 11%. There's no way the Greens have 15% support nationally, and might not even have that in Melbourne anymore. What does seem clear, though, is that expectations that the Greens might face a Senate wipe-out next year might have been overblown, although they'll still struggle.