Scott Morrison Newspoll Malcolm Turnbull Ipsos

Two opinion polls with contrasting stories came out today. You can bet Newspoll, which shows the government pulling back some ground but still trailing Labor badly, 47-53, is closer to reality than the Ipsos poll from Fairfax, which showed unalloyed gloom and doom for the Liberals on 45-55.

Apart from being insufficiently frequent to offer more than a snapshot, Ipsos continues to have a problem with its estimate of the Greens vote, which it insists is 15% nationally. Newspoll -- which used to overestimate the Greens itself -- has it at 11%. There's no way the Greens have 15% support nationally, and might not even have that in Melbourne anymore. What does seem clear, though, is that expectations that the Greens might face a Senate wipe-out next year might have been overblown, although they'll still struggle.