Malcolm Turnbull Coalition

As luck would have it, Malcolm Turnbull's reverse at the Super Saturday byelections landed just as opinion polls started pointing out a potential path to his re-election.

Not that the government is there yet. Its famous losing run in Newspoll extended to 37 last week, and no other established pollster has run a poll that failed to credit Labor with a two-party lead throughout this period, which began shortly after the 2016 election.

However, the polls of the past fortnight have found the Coalition three points ahead on the primary vote in Newspoll, for the first time since December 2016; at 41% in Essential Research, its strongest primary vote in all poll published since September 2016; and level pegging in Ipsos' little-publicised two-party measure that allows respondents to allocate their own preferences, rather than assuming they will flow as they did at the last election.