Bit by bit, the chances of the next movement in interest rates being down rather than up, are increasing. They're still small -- but bigger than they were three months ago.
We know that economic growth and jobs growth are strong -- although jobs growth peaked at the end of 2017, and growth hasn't been strong enough to really push down unemployment. We know that core inflation is just under the Reserve Bank's target band and seemingly stuck there -- indeed, would be even lower but for the actions of governments. We know that wages growth in the private sector is stuck below inflation -- although we'll get the June quarter wage price index soon, which will tell us whether the government will hit its downgraded WPI target of 2.25% for 2017-18. But on top of that is the unfolding trade war between the government's good friend Donald Trump and China, which threatens to undermine global economic growth.