If you believe the Energy Security Board (ESB) and Acil Allen’s new modelling released yesterday on the National Energy Guarantee (NEG), you are believing in a fairytale. 

This modelling suggests that in a time of unprecedented disruption and technological change in global energy markets, Australia’s electricity system will basically stand still for eight years from 2021/2022-2030. That the only changes are those that are currently planned -- closures of two coal-fired power stations -- Liddell and Gladstone, the building of Snowy 2.0 and the onward, unstoppable march of rooftop solar.