May 16, 2018

Poll Bludger: has the budget helped the government’s chances at re-election one bit?

While warring poll numbers cast doubt on voter's love for the Coalition, there are signs that Malcolm Turnbull may soon have a reason to await his preferred leader polls with hope rather than dread.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

As the media searched for a narrative around the public response to last week's federal budget, two major opinion polls published on Monday appeared to offer only confusion.

In The Australian, Newspoll found a government that trailed miserably for most of 2017 was within striking distance, facing a two-party deficit of just 51-49.

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10 thoughts on “Poll Bludger: has the budget helped the government’s chances at re-election one bit?

  1. Marcus Hicks

    Oh please, any relationship between PPM & Voting Intention has been coincidental at best. Keating went into the 1996 election as PPM, yet still scored a thumping. Rudd was PPM in 2013, but likewise got thumped by a deeply unpopular Abbott. Fact remains that the Coalition didn’t even get a dead cat bounce from this Trojan Horse budget, & I suspect they will begin to sink again as people examine the budget in more detail.

  2. CML

    How on earth ANYONE can see the dithering, lying, hypocritical Turdbull as ‘better PM’ is beyond me.
    It suggests that people would like to see Turdbull lead the Labor Party (since they are going to vote for them)…so nothing has changed!
    Except… that scenario would be a disaster for individuals and Australia more generally. Some people really are thick!!

  3. kyle Hargraves

    From CML : “How . snip . ANYONE can see .. snip .. Turdbull as ‘better PM’ is beyond me.”
    I suggest, its a case of (1) the “devil one knows” and (2) outright disappointment with anyone on the Opposition benches. However, it doesn’t do to become too polar.

    As pointed out, elsewhere, the methodology of the polling is unclear (across the various polls) and we don’t get to play with the data sets (yes, plural) and (thus) make our own assessments. To this extent the polls remain a mixture of “indication” (at best) and entertainment.

    1. Peter F

      “outright disappointment with anyone on the Opposition benches” …………?????????

  4. brian crooks

    my assessment of the guardians assessment of turdballs budget is BULLSHIT the guardian is trying to breath some life into a dead skunk of a government thats been mouldering on the roadside in the sun for a week, this government is dead and has been since turnbull turned his back on the fair go in 2016, he promised so much and delivered so little, no credibility no chance of re election, only the very rich or the very stupid will vote for this dysfunctional collection of spivs and con men and there`s not enough of them to save this mob.

  5. Ray Sanderson

    You’re supposed to be an election ‘expert’ William. Have you forgotten that a govt has never won an opposition seat since 1920? Turnbull’s mob are on the nose everywhere. Newspoll is rubbish, using concoted figures to give Turnbull a bit of a lift. Turnbull govt has been behind on 53/47 since he was elected. It would be difficult for any govt to reverse that position but Turnbull has many problems. Labor will hold the 2 WA seats easily, same for Braddon, Longman is a challenge but history is on Labor’s side with by elections. Mayo will be interesting with airhead Georgie Downer running. Sharkie might just eat her. Cheers

    1. Suzie_darling

      Ray, I hope you are right about the result in Mayo. I don’t know how we could cope with seeing or hearing Georgina Downer any more than we do now. Surely the good folk in Mayo can see what they are in for if they elect her. I just hope they give Rebekha Sharkie another go.

  6. AR

    Any update on the other vital question of pinhead dancing angels?

    1. kyle Hargraves

      I am unreliably informed that, yes, there has been a “break-through” and the number of angels
      that are able to so dance is (e/pi)^A where A (strictly N subscript A) is Avogadro’s constant (or number). As with the charge of a quark, angels can exist in non-integer form and (in circular fashion) are affected by the molar-mass of the electron.

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