Apr 16, 2018

Poll Bludger: the winners and losers from upcoming electoral boundary changes

On top of the easily quantifiable impacts on party margins and seat shares, the changes will disrupt the major parties by disturbing finely calibrated balances of factional power.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

Liberal MP Sarah Henderson is concerned about renaming an electorate "Cox".

Liberal MP Sarah Henderson is concerned about renaming an electorate "Cox"

As the first rumblings of election date speculation take hold, the party machines are now finally in a position to plot tactics with a clear sense of what the battlefield will look like.

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10 thoughts on “Poll Bludger: the winners and losers from upcoming electoral boundary changes

  1. The Curmudgeon

    Don’t see how an election is possible between September and December due to the no-go zone of footy finals and then the start of the Victorian election campaign. Ditto for next year with the NSW election and then Easter. Lock in 18 May.

    1. Evil Garry

      Totally agree. Unless Malcolm has his own ‘Tampa’ come sailing over the horizon in the latter half of this year, the opinion polls, the NSW and Vic State elections, and the summer and winter breaks will guarantee that he has to wait until next May.

    2. RL

      Nice call Curmudgeon; sounds about right to me too.
      On redistribution of boundaries; I languish in a federal “safe” National Party seat, Cowper in NSW and redistribution seems to be in the never never.
      I believe the Nats have held the seat continuously with only one break.
      It would be great to see them get the boot before I shuffle off to the great polling booth in the sky.

      1. Rais

        Don’t know what margin your Nats member has but there would be numerous young people and probably many Indigenous people in your electorate who are not even registered to vote. Compulsory voting is a dead letter in Australia because steady, continual defunding of Government departments, year after year, has rendered them incapable of enforcing anything non life-threatening. Additionally, making the Electoral Commission unable to enforce compulsory voting is a handy method of voter suppression for the present government since the majority of those not registered to vote would be potential Labor voters. Potential Nats destroyers are out there, RL. You, or perhaps your local Labor branch, just need to get them registered.

        1. AR

          That needs to be said, often & often.

        2. RL

          Absolutely right on every point Rais.
          I’ll follow up your suggestions as best my geriatric self will allow.

      2. brian crooks

        my guess is malcolm will be convinced to stand down,( lets say for the old excuse of family reasons), if his polls dont improve by september, then a fill in leader will be used till election day, the coalition will lose badly, then Abbott and his faction will take the liberal leadership on the basis he`s their best opposition leader and also to stop mass defections to one nation and bernadi by disenchanted right wing ultra conservatives, the same with the nationals and barnaby joyce, thats the only option left for the die hard old neo cons currently controlling the libs.

      3. brian crooks

        RL dont despair, I too live in redneck heartland in the seat of new england but am greatly encouraged by the new maxim, THERE IS NOW NO SUCH THING AS A SAFE SEAT, and I sense a feeling of despair amongst the rednecks as their world is slowly sold out from under their feet by joyce and his corrupt national party, the interests of big mining are foremost in the actions of todays national party and the hip pocket nerve of the locals is throbbing badly as their standard of living goes south while their living costs go ever northward and we all know that nerve is the most sensitive part of their greedy bodies, I`ve been polled twice in the last few weeks and I`m sure bonker boy joyce is testing the water as to his chances, dont be surprised if he announces retirement and takes a high paying job with his bestie Gina.

  2. MJM

    “Labor gets one uncomplicated free kick from the new ACT seat, which some creative thinkers suggested could provide Kristina Keneally with a safe berth in the lower house.”

    Mostly being played as wait-and-see until the outcome of Katy Gallagher’s High Court citizenship case is known. If Gallagher loses there is the option of her running for HoR at next election. She is well-known, -liked and -respected in ACT.

    I presently live in the sea of Fenner, previously known as Fraser after first MHR Jim Fraser, but mine is one of the Belconnen suburbs scheduled to move to the proposed new seat.

  3. CML

    The electorate…and area known as Port Adelaide…is an icon in my state, and even though I don’t live there, I am gob-smacked that the AEC would even contemplate removing it.
    IMHO the AEC should go back to the drawing board!!

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