South Australia

Mar 9, 2018

Poll Bludger: has Xenophon run out of steam?

After looking like he was going steamroll his way into South Australian parliament, SA Best seems to have lost significant momentum as campaign attrition takes its tole.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

A few short weeks after he looked set to challenge the two-party system that has shackled Australian politics for over a century, Nick Xenophon's campaign for next Saturday's South Australian election now appears to be experiencing a reverse bandwagon effect.

Media observers have noticed a certain listlessness afflicting the normally exuberant Xenophon, as questions mount as to whether SA Best’s scattered grab-bag of policies and retinue of little-known candidates can handle the scrutiny of a real-world election campaign.

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8 thoughts on “Poll Bludger: has Xenophon run out of steam?

  1. AR

    It’ll be all night on the Right.

  2. klewso

    “Steven who?”?

    1. klewso

      Maybe they should get Frydenberg and Tuppence to come over and campaign for them?

    2. Marcus Hicks

      You know, Shanghai Steven.

  3. Ian Mannix

    A further reason for the decline might be the massive ugly, negative campaigning directly again Xenophon by SA Unions AND the Liberals.

  4. john OCallaghan

    Maybe Nick should ride around town on a uni cycle wearing a sandwhich board while juggling steak knifes and with a pet monkey on his head grinding an organ while singing the national anthem in Greek!

  5. CML

    We have a preferential system of voting in this country. It is NOT new. So whoever wins will be the ‘preferred’ government. Get over it!!!
    As a South Australian, I am not aware that any Labor politician actually worked in Oakden and abused any residents…they didn’t even know it was happening, for Ch+^t’s sake. Neither did any other politician know it was happening. The whole disgusting behaviour of the STAFF there has/is being dealt with. What more do you want? Blood???
    This politicisation of elder abuse, by Labor’s opponents …and I’m a senior citizen, and a retired registered nurse…HAS TO STOP.
    There is much, much more to this election than this particular issue…important as it is. And why no doG’s earth would we want a Liberal government that is ANYTHING like what is going on in Canberra? Hopefully we will leave that to the drongos in Tasmania!!

  6. Arky

    “Two factors explain the media’s perception of a downturn in Xenophon’s fortunes”

    William, how you managed to avoid the more obvious “the early SA-BEST polling reflected a honeymoon effect for an unscrutinised party with a well-known leader, and it has come back to Earth somewhat with the scrutiny of a campaign” is beyond me.

    You can’t use a drop in SA-BEST’s polling to explain a drop in SA-BEST’s polling. If anything their outsize early polling should have created a bandwagon effect in their favour.

    And suggesting preference deals against them (people hate preference deals, e.g. WA with One Nation and the Libs) have dropped their vote?

    No, their vote has dropped in the polls because people like them less. Sorry, you’re usually very much worth listening to on poll analysis, but in this case you seem to have tried very hard to avoid the bleeding obvious. See also the way Malcolm Turnbull’s polling dropped away again after his honeymoon period boost.

    “If they do so again, the end game might well be that a 16-year-old government with its credibility in tatters over the Oakden nursing home scandal limps”

    This little bit of editorialising might explain why your poll analysis is so bad in this case. We all fall for the trap of looking at what we want to be true, and not what is true, but in this case the poll movement against SA-Best (and in favour of the Weatherill government) is not due to some kind of illegitimate metagaming factors, it is purely because Xenophon is being found out a bit under the scrutiny of a campaign and his SA-BEST candidates are coming across like the second coming of Palmer United, only with even less lip service to loyalty to their leader.

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