Mar 2, 2018

Poll Bludger: pokies claim more victims as the Liberals make late gains in Tasmania

The Tasmanian Liberals have gained ground in the lead up to tomorrow's state election, but there are still a few battlegrounds that could see the tide turn.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

If a spate of late campaign polls are borne out tomorrow, Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman will achieve what seemed at best improbable four weeks ago -- a second-term majority for his Liberal government, achieved under the state's tricky Hare-Clark electoral system.

Back in December, a poll from local outfit Enterprise Marketing and Research Services suggested a hung parliament was all but a foregone conclusion, with both major parties stranded on 34%, despite Labor's improved position under popular new leader Rebecca White. But in the past fortnight, three separate pollsters have found the Liberals opening a decisive lead, with EMRS recording their support up by 12%.

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9 thoughts on “Poll Bludger: pokies claim more victims as the Liberals make late gains in Tasmania

  1. Arky

    If Tasmanians decide they’d rather have a Liberal state government than a Labor/Greens coalition, they might have a very long-serving Liberal government indeed unless the Greens lay down and take a dive or someone comes along to split the right wing vote the same way. It’s got to be pretty galling for Rebecca White.

    It’s hard to say what the impact really is of the pubs and clubs campaign. With all respect, issues polling tends to be notoriously bad, even with the best designed questions (and they usually aren’t). Asking people what the most important issue is for their vote isn’t going to get you the right answer. People might say “X is not the most important issue for my vote”, but it could still be the one that swung them, or kept them from swinging. The straw that broke the camel’s back isn’t the heaviest part of the load, just the tipping point.

    Then there’s the point that what matters isn’t the most important issue to voters as a whole, but to swinging voters. A point often missed with breathless reporting on preferred leader polls. No-one should care what rusted on Labor voters prefer as leader of the Liberal Party or what rusted on Liberal voters prefer as leader of the Labor Party, and these have a huge effect on the headline results trumpeted week after week.

    1. The Curmudgeon

      Hear, hear, very sound point. 14.3% might be a lot if it is “the most important issue” and changes votes, but bugger all if it is “the most important issue” but just confirms people in their customary voting habit. I wish polls would focus on the swingers and leave us rusted ons alone.

  2. CML

    And what of the latest news from the Liberals down there…relaxing gun laws?
    According to the ABC News at lunch time, this is likely to be a BIG issue because of the Port Arthur massacre.
    Perhaps the Lying Nasty Party has shot itself in the foot…trying to keep this secret, and only discussing it with those who want better access to guns.
    In Tasmania of all places!!!

    1. Camm

      The problem is amongst some of the sillier reform (10 year licences) there is actually good reform in the policy. Minor storage violations for example are massively over prosecuted (for example, leaving ammunition in the same safe as its corresponding firearm) and should be dealt with by fine rather than court.

      I’m a little more hesitant over changes to C class, however the fact is if we are going to allow shooting as a past time in Australia, the reality is single shot weapons are disappearing. Clay target shooters for example continue to face increasing costs for firearms due to the lower sales and price increases around double barrel over under shotguns compared to modern semi-automatics.

    2. AR

      Immediately followed by the usual Labor “me-too”.
      As it was, is & will be with Labor federally.

  3. mary wood

    Maybe, just maybe, Liberal party polling is showing the scare campaign is backfiring. Why else would they introduce, on the last day of campaigning, a policy to water down gun laws. A (very) last minute appeal to the gun lobby rednecks?

    1. CML

      Mary…according to the news item I heard, some shooters organisation put all the details up on its website. Complete with Liberal government promises about what had been agreed.
      Sounds like the whole issue was supposed to be a ‘surprise’ for the voters once the Libs were returned to government tomorrow…outrageous!!

      1. CML

        So…the next multiple death/injury from a shooting episode, whether in Tasmania or on the mainland?
        We will now know who to blame…all those who voted for the lying nasty party yesterday in Tasmania. And don’t assume those soon to be legal semi and/or automatic rifles will all stay down there where the drongos live either!!
        AR…wrong, wrong, wrong!
        I distinctly heard the leader of the Labor Party in Tasmania say last night, that they did NOT support the watering down of the NFA.
        Could you please stop with the ‘fake news’…please???

  4. Sleuth

    The big issue is how much of the money donated to the Liberal party has come from the gambling industry. If this money elects Will Hodgman as premier, then how much influence does a self interest poker machine group have? We won’t know until donations are declared next year, and then it will be too late. Donation laws need a huge shake up.

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