For all its baffling complexity, tomorrow's state election in Queensland can be well understood as a war on three fronts: the urban south-east, the regions, and the behind-the-lines guerrilla campaign waged by One Nation.

The first of these appears to be turning, perhaps decisively, in favour of Labor, which has gained traction with a campaign based around the “cuts and chaos” threatened by a governing Liberal-National Party and One Nation alliance.