Nov 20, 2017

Poll Bludger: Greens inner-urban insurgency claims another Labor stronghold

With the Greens now laying claim to three state lower house seats in both New South Wales and Victoria, the next question is whether they can gain a seat in the Queensland parliament on Saturday.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

What had been a pretty ordinary year for the Greens appears to be resolving to a happy ending, after the party’s sweeping victory in Saturday’s byelection for the Victorian state seat of Northcote.

The party now has raised hopes not just for the Queensland election on Saturday, but also — if the grandiose projection of federal Greens leader Richard Di Natale is to be taken at face value — for an eventual target of 25 House of Representatives seats a quarter of a century from now.

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15 thoughts on “Poll Bludger: Greens inner-urban insurgency claims another Labor stronghold

  1. zut alors

    It’s unfortunate that South Brisbane’s Jackie Trad is under threat as she’s hardworking, likeable & intelligent. She is not an Adani supporter but was unwillingly caught in the web spun by Premier Palaszczuk whose pet project it has been. Trad was beholden to the party to toe the line regardless of her opinion on Adani.

    While it could result in a great win for the Greens, Trad’s potential departure would be a loss to Qld politics in general. We need to boost the median IQ – Trad is one of the smartest ones.

    1. klewso

      On present poll figures (admittedly from the Curry or Maul and as presented by that wishful conservative clown and number molester Wardill, last week – who had Trad copping a flogging) everything will have to go right for the Greens in Sth Brisbane – not least the number of Limited News Party voters preferencing them ahead of Labor.
      As Antony Green said on ABC TV too, that night.

  2. Aethelstan

    Seems like the main role of the Greens is to split the left vote … possibly leading to a conservative government…

    1. Hugh (Charlie) McColl

      It sounds as though you equate a vote for the Adani Labor Party as a vote for the ‘left’? Labor has more right wingers (whingers?) than the LNP – which is why they are consistent supporters of Adani and other miners in the Galilee Basin, of asset sales like Abbot Point, of royalty ‘holidays’ and of disgusting GBR-wrecking dredging proposals such as the just-approved Townsville Port expansion which will allow a 14% increase in sea-dumping of maintenance dredge spoil – right in the guts of World Heritage listed Cleveland Bay. Labor Tories are just as capable as Liberal-National Tories of despoiling the GBR despite their lying claims of ending sea dumping. Maintenance spoil – over half a million cubic metres per year – will always be dumped in the sea unless the lazy government-owned ports are forced to lift their game. Will Labor make it happen? No way.

      1. CML

        So you are saying that everything you accuse Labor of doing/promising, WON’T happen if the LNP form government on Saturday???????

    2. drsmithy

      If you’re a leftie voting for Labor, you’re doing it wrong.

      1. Stuart Johnson

        The idea that votes for the Greens can help the conservatives is just wrong.
        Firstly in a preferential system, especially now with compulsory preferences, there is no need to worry about splitting the vote. Anyone who would otherwise vote Labor above the LNP but chooses to vote Green will have their vote count for Labor if the Greens candidate does not win.
        If the Greens do win seats, this also does not help the LNP form Government. To form Government they need a majority, if this happens then the combined Labor and Green seats must be a minority and no amount of switching numbers between them will change that.

    3. SQuinny1

      They only have a chance in gentrified constituencors that used to be reliably Labor. Now that they have a federal leader who has tried to get rid of Rhiannon and NSW’s ‘lefty’ Greens, whose defended paying below Work Choices wages within his own house, it’s really hard to see the point of the ‘tree Tory’ Greens.

      1. drsmithy

        LOL. That au pair thing was a comically transparent character assassination. I can’t believe people fell (still fall) for it.

  3. Sean Whalan

    The Greens’ are merely occupying the ground surrendered by the Labour Party.
    I doubt that Gough and similar stars in the Labour Galaxy would warmly embrace the deviation to the Right that sadly the ALP have so wholeheartedly embraced since the 80’s.
    Witness the remarkable result in the recent by-election held in the Victorian Seat of Northcote.

  4. Michael Fink

    If the Greens lower house members acquit themselves well, then why shouldn’t we expect to see numbers increase substantially over 25 years? Much less than 25 years ago the prospect of same sex marriage seemed at least as remote. Things can change pretty quickly.

    We keep hearing the electorate is fed up with politics as usual. Whilst s44 initially looked pretty disastrous for the Greens, a few months later the swift resignations of Ludlam and Waters have starkly differentiated the party’s representatives from the naked self-interest of the other parties’ parliamentarians.

    I think there’s a pretty decent chance the overall Greens vote will start going up again, and it won’t be evenly distributed, but will radiate out from the inner urban areas. Once a couple more Greens get in I think there’s every chance it could snowball, as it becomes clearer to the less civically engaged that a vote for the Greens isn’t a “wasted vote”.

  5. AR

    If only people would spend 5 minutes learning how our transferable preference voting works they’d see that it allows them to show the political class what they want and still ensure that they don’t get the shitty end of the stick.
    If only.

  6. Arky

    I am surprised that none of the analysis of the Northcote vote sees fit to mention that it came on the heels of the YES vote.

    As reasons go for a late swing to the Greens which polling would miss, that’s a pretty good one. If there was ever an event to inspire people to be their most progressive selves and believe change CAN happen and not just business as usual, that was it. I tend to believe the polling was right- this was a close election until the proximity to the YES vote swung it.

    I also don’t believe it is a bad thing for the ALP in the long run if Victoria becomes more progressive, and if it has a check from the left preventing it from chasing the Liberals too far to the right in search of votes. I know many ALP types are less sanguine about losing seats to the Greens, but to me it’s like the Libs being upset about losing seats to the Nationals- is it really that bad for the party at the end of the day?

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