Economy

Nov 7, 2017

Why we shouldn’t wait around for a Reserve Bank rate rise

Sluggish inflation and worryingly weak retail sales have undermined any case for an interest rate rise -- possibly for all of 2018.

Glenn Dyer and Bernard Keane

Crikey business and media commentator / Politics editor

Reserve Bank economic growth

While the "rate rise looms" crowd abandoned predictions of a Cup day interest rate rise a while back -- pushing into 2018 the eagerly awaited tightening of monetary policy -- this afternoon's Reserve Bank decision to keep rates on hold will be carefully parsed for the Bank's view of the economy -- and how far into 2018 we might have to wait for a rate rise, assuming we get one. 

Some historical context: the RBA cash rate has been below 2% now for 18 months, and below 3% since Julia Gillard was prime minister. There hasn't been a rate rise since 2010. At no point in that time have we had either the economic growth or the inflation to warrant a lift in rates, despite successive governments pumping tens of billions of dollars a year of deficit spending into the economy.

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6 comments

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6 thoughts on “Why we shouldn’t wait around for a Reserve Bank rate rise

  1. Mike Smith

    My bet would be RBA hold, banks go for an out of band rise.

  2. [email protected]

    Soon the US will need to raise rates to avoid many of the pension funds collapsing because of insufficient income from bonds. I expect Aus will follow.

  3. AR

    I rather like this wandering in the wilderness of record low interest rates – if nothing else it demonstrates that central bankers don’t know their arse from their elbow.
    No news there. Long may it continue.

  4. bref

    Interesting last para. Petrol prices where I live are already $1.39/l (standard). Rents are astronomical, energy $800/qtr, few jobs. My savings are already gone, theres nothing left to ‘further dip into’. The reality these days for most of us is a quiet desperation. And the pollies keep fiddling. They don’t know the country’s burning.

    1. Kossoff

      Exactly! BS comment about THE FIGURES is just BS. Ask people on $40k and less how well they are doing. I’m lucky enough to be taking that amount from investments, I shudder to think about people working their guts out for that amount with the piddling amount of super involved and the job insecurity built into most jobs nowadays. This government hates ordinary Aussies. Think about Mal the Pathetic’s comments about Bill and billionaires. Scum like you can’t have the rich as your friend!

    2. Mike Smith

      Yes, but high interest rates are used to slow down an economy, not out of a desire by those with savings to have better returns on them. And we do *not* want to slow down the economy any more than it is. Check GDP growth.

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