Even the most casual observer of the pre-budget leak'n'squeak period would have noticed that the budget will be partly built on better growth forecasts -- certainly for nominal GDP and probably for real GDP. That will flow through to higher revenue forecasts in the budget documents -- although whether it ever flows in an actual financial sense is a different question. But hitherto, there's been plenty of evidence justifying a brighter economic outlook globally and domestically.

But did the Reserve Bank throw a spanner in the works last week? In its second Statement on Monetary Policy for the year the RBA has become surprisingly gloomy about the prospects of the long-touted rebound in non-mining investment. The RBA’s change of heart calls into question the success of the economy’s transition from the mining boom to the housing boom and then to a more general level of business investment spending.