Western Australia

Mar 13, 2017

Poll Bludger: making sense of the WA election result

In evaluating the spin, counter-spin and self-serving justification that inevitably runs rampant after a lopsided election result, it's worth evaluating the journey the polls took.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

Until Saturday, it was possible to argue that various structural factors -- wealth, isolation, an economy based on resource extraction rather than manufacturing -- put a low ceiling on Labor's electoral potential in Western Australia.

Specifically, the best Labor seemed able to manage was 32 seats in the state Parliament's lower house, which had 57 seats from 1983 and 59 from 2008.

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8 thoughts on “Poll Bludger: making sense of the WA election result

  1. Ian Brown

    Thanks for a useful analysis – in particular for pointing out that as PHON did not run in all lower house seats, the upper house vote provides the best indication of their state-wide support.

  2. Wayne Robinson

    I’m bemused by the preference choices of the Liberals. In the Mining electorate in the council (where One Nation has the greatest chance of winning a seat with 0.98 of a quota in earlish figures) the Liberals gave One Nation the 7th preference, then one of the Nationals followed by the other One Nation candidates lower down. The Liberals so far have just managed 1.06 quotas, a dismal result compared to One Nation, but which will ensure one One Nation candidate will be elected.

    The Liberals’ preferences almost look as if they pinned the ballot paper to a wall and threw darts at it. There certainly doesn’t seem to be much logic or consistency.

  3. CML

    Congratulations William! You are the first commentator I’ve read, in a large number of publications, who actually said that LABOR WON THE ELECTION!
    Everyone else is on about the poor Libs, Nats, Phonies, Micros and whoever else. Obviously the MSM can’t bring themselves to acknowledge that Labor won. What a bunch of self-opinionated, biased, RWNJ supporting, NON-journalists!!

    1. Pollietragic

      CNJ – Agreed, good article Bludger. Additionally, mainstream media can’t bring themselves to delve on the fact that an LNP government proved themselves to be totally inept at economic management. After the good times of the mining boom receded, the economic management cupboard was naked, not bare.
      Ross Gittins said, approx, Once the boom is over and the tide recedes, it is easy to see which Treasurers have been swimming naked. Christian Porter, ex WA treasurer, avoided naked economic mismanagement exposure, and got out before the tide turned. Let’s see how brilliant he is as a Federal LNP minister.

      1. Pollietragic

        OOPS – sorry, make that CML!

  4. The Curmudgeon

    William, any idea on how One Nation preferences actually flowed in lower house seats? If they didn’t favour the Libs over Labor at least 70:30, you’d have to question why the Libs would do a deal with a mob that can’t deliver.

  5. AR

    WA is irrelevant to the rest of the country, demographically, geographically, intellectually (sic!) and for a dozen other reasons.
    For some inexplicably reason the demand to be bribed to join Federation in 1900 was acceded to and they haven’t stopped whining since.

  6. klewso

    Hanson’s “the media is hiding our success (because we didn’t contest every seat)” spin cycle.
    How many of those seats that Hanson-Ashby’s One Nation didn’t contest were those in which they probably would have polled embarrassingly (for Hanson-Ashby) – an extension to those in which they polled ≤7%? A reflection of that 7.5% for the upper house?
    To have contested every seat would have increased the overall percentage gained, but how would that have affected the “average %/seat” figure?

    ….. As for “the media ignoring The Greens success”? What’s changed? Now if they’d lost ground ….?

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