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Western Australia

Dec 21, 2016

Polling shows state Labor rampant on the east coast

State-based polling shows Labor performing strongly in the eastern states, and One Nation and NXT well placed in Queensland and South Australia.

The year is ending with Labor polling particularly strongly at the state level down the east coast, new data from Essential Research shows.

In NSW, the once-mighty Baird government led Labor on a two-party preferred basis 51%-49% in the October-December quarter, with the Coalition on 43% — down a point from the July-September quarter — and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens remain on 9%. That’s based on a sample of nearly 3500. In December, Labor ends the year 50-50 with the Coalition, reflecting a Coalition primary vote lead of just three points over Labor.

In Victoria, any recent wobbles by the Andrews government have had little impact — it has maintained it steady long-term two-party preferred lead of 53%-47%, with Labor steady on 41% across the quarter and the Coalition on 38-39%. The Greens averaged 11% across the quarter, which covers a sample of 2631.

In Queensland, the Palaszczuk government, helped by One Nation’s impact on the LNP, holds a massive 55%-45% two-party preferred lead (sample size just over 2000), up from 53-47 the previous quarter. Labor now leads the LNP on primary votes, 36%-34%, although that slipped back in December to 33%-35%. One Nation was on 12% (and 13% in December), while the Greens were on 10%.

In South Australia, however, the Weatherill government has slipped back to a primary vote of 35% (down three points) compared to the Liberals’ 32%; NXT is on 17% (up a point) and the Greens on 7%, for a two-party preferred result of 51%-49% in Labor’s favour. That’s down from 54%-46% in the previous quarter.

Over in the west, Labor is down three points to 36%, while the Barnett government remains on 34%, and the Nationals on 6% and the Greens on 11%; others and independents are on 13%, for a two-party preferred outcome of 51%-49% in Labor’s favour.

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