The year is ending with Labor polling particularly strongly at the state level down the east coast, new data from Essential Research shows.

In NSW, the once-mighty Baird government led Labor on a two-party preferred basis 51%-49% in the October-December quarter, with the Coalition on 43% — down a point from the July-September quarter — and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens remain on 9%. That’s based on a sample of nearly 3500. In December, Labor ends the year 50-50 with the Coalition, reflecting a Coalition primary vote lead of just three points over Labor.

In Victoria, any recent wobbles by the Andrews government have had little impact — it has maintained it steady long-term two-party preferred lead of 53%-47%, with Labor steady on 41% across the quarter and the Coalition on 38-39%. The Greens averaged 11% across the quarter, which covers a sample of 2631.

In Queensland, the Palaszczuk government, helped by One Nation’s impact on the LNP, holds a massive 55%-45% two-party preferred lead (sample size just over 2000), up from 53-47 the previous quarter. Labor now leads the LNP on primary votes, 36%-34%, although that slipped back in December to 33%-35%. One Nation was on 12% (and 13% in December), while the Greens were on 10%.

In South Australia, however, the Weatherill government has slipped back to a primary vote of 35% (down three points) compared to the Liberals’ 32%; NXT is on 17% (up a point) and the Greens on 7%, for a two-party preferred result of 51%-49% in Labor’s favour. That’s down from 54%-46% in the previous quarter.

Over in the west, Labor is down three points to 36%, while the Barnett government remains on 34%, and the Nationals on 6% and the Greens on 11%; others and independents are on 13%, for a two-party preferred outcome of 51%-49% in Labor’s favour.

Peter Fray

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Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey