A late swing to the government is likely to deliver a victory for Malcolm Turnbull, Essential Research's final poll of the campaign shows. The government has finished the campaign with the narrowest of two-party preferred leads, 50.5%, over Labor, 49.5%, based on an improved primary vote of 42.5%, while Labor's primary vote has fallen significantly, to 34.5%. That makes for a three-point swing to Labor since the 2013 election; on a uniform national basis that would suggest Labor would gain just nine seats, less than half of what it needs for victory. The Greens have improved their vote to 11.5% (somewhat offsetting Labor's primary vote fall), while the Nick Xenophon Team is currently on 1.5% nationally (although this can't be directly compared to previous levels, due the inclusion of South Australian numbers). "Others" are on 10.5%. The poll is based on 1212 respondents, and preferences have been allocated according to party preference distribution at the 2013 election.
Essential: wounded Turnbull set for victory with late swing
A last-week surge has put the Coalition back into the lead, and Malcolm Turnbull is poised for victory, the final Essential Report poll of the campaign reveals.