Mar 11, 2016

Predictions for the post-election Senate: more Team Xenophon, more Sex Party

Ultimately, the result of a double dissolution seems likely to deliver the electorate what it ordered ...

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

As talk of a July double dissolution grows louder with every passing week, the government has reached the stage where reverting to a later option will look dangerously like a loss of nerve.

Appalled though some Liberals may be at the prospect of a campaign dragging through most of May and all of June, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull would do well to be mindful of what happened in Britain in 2007.

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13 thoughts on “Predictions for the post-election Senate: more Team Xenophon, more Sex Party

  1. Norman Hanscombe

    Even among the tiny minority who understand proportional systems, until an election arises the extent to which predicting outcomes generally remains very much a guessing game; but it does help fill empty column spaces, doesn’t it.

  2. MJM

    We need to have an article on Xenophon’s voting record. I think he is a sheep in wolf’s clothing.

  3. Maureen Daly

    I intend to vote 1. Ricky Muir in the Senate vote. Prior to 2013, I could never have imagined myself doing such a thing. However, his conduct over the past two and a half years has impressed me, and I consider him a good representative of the people of Victoria. I would not like to have him disappear from the Senate.

  4. Liam Whelan

    As much as a I dislike Jacqui Lambie, the chances of her winning a seat in a DD election is better than 50%. Considering a 7.7% quota and the small amount of votes needed to fulfil that quota makes it relatively likely.

  5. Prefix

    Does anyone know what happens under OPV if more than more than 7.7% votes in a state exhaust before 12 candidates are elected?

  6. Norman Hanscombe

    Liam Whelan, in a Double Dissolution the quota is less than 7.7% which means the final seat can be won by someone with 3.85% of the votes cast. An important factor in determining which candidates are successful however is how the preferences run including the arrangements made re the various Tickets.
    It’s not improbable that there would be numerous candidates sitting there without quotas at a point where there are several seats yet to be filled. When that happens candidates are eliminated starting with whoever has the lowest vote, so it’s not possible at this early stage to be confident about what that might mean.
    Obviously it’s too early for us to say whether Lambie will be able to convince enough voters that she can do a good job for them. You and I may share some opinions about her suitability, but we probably won’t be eligible to cast votes.

  7. AR

    Poor Bill, he just can’t get his head around the 21stC and those damned Gen Wotevers, can he?
    If enough of the electorate understand the wonderful vorpal sword they’ve been given by Optional Preferential voting Below the Line then anybody who declaims doesn’t know.
    Of course, it may take another election or three but this change is the best thing since STV in the reps.
    MaureenD shows exactly this proclivity.

  8. CML

    @AR…great stuff, with which I thoroughly agree…now there’s a surprise!
    I’m just telling everyone I know…in the Senate, vote BTL and exclude all the dirty dealers…LNP/Greens/Xenophon. Simple!!

    @MJM…I live in SA, and your comment is spot on!
    Mr X has achieved bugg+r all since he has been in politics. That includes his time in the SA upper house and the Senate. He is supposed to be a ‘No Pokies’ advocate…at last count those pesky machines have INCREASED in SA over the past 10+years (and probably everywhere else).
    Xenophon is just an opportunist!!

  9. StefanL

    A related question is whether the quota will be recalculated as batches of votes exhaust ?

  10. Norman Hanscombe

    StefanL, when the half-baked 1971 Federal A.L.P. intervention into the NSW Branch occurred it included the introduction of proportional voting. At that time I tried repeatedly to warn them their system didn’t work and provided examples of how reducing quota amendments should be used. The ALP ‘experts’ ignored my warnings about their system not working but when they ended up with a shambles during the count for National Executive Delegates they called in the Proportional Society representatives to make unofficial arbitrary amendments to the count and a fair result ensued, although the losers for the final spot never accepted it and claimed there’d been a conspiracy.
    I talked to the Proportional Society representatives at the time, and they told me the suggestions I sent to the ALP Federal Executive re reducing quotas all worked well but unfortunately the problem was that very few people could understand what was involved.
    Little has changed since then, so no matter how good new systems may be, it’s difficult to succeed against the scare campaigns new proposals will face.

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