Jan 11, 2016

Poll Bludger: and the next federal election will be held on …

Myriad factors influence when Malcolm Turnbull will decide the date for the next election.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

As the wheel of federal politics begins to turn again after the interruption of the festive season, all calculations for the year ahead are hostage to one overriding question: when and how Malcolm Turnbull will place his prime ministership before the verdict of the voters.

Broadly speaking, two options are available in calling an election that could, in theory, be delayed as late as January 14 next year, but will assuredly be held much sooner.

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17 thoughts on “Poll Bludger: and the next federal election will be held on …

  1. Norman Hanscombe

    Whenever he goes Turnbull has a winner in the issue of the public’ belief there’s a need to impose greater oversight on union officials.
    Perhaps that’s why the usual suspect Crikey-philes aren’t venturing on to this thread?

  2. CML

    As far as your last paragraph is concerned, I hope you are correct. By that time even those with half a brain should have been able to work out that Talcum Malcum is just Tony Abbott in a more expensive suit!!

  3. Jaybuoy

    @nh.. It’s such a winner that the report got thrown out with the trash when no one was paying attention..the only interest in this report is the redacted section and the only real scandal is the millions wasted on an inquiry that should have been held into phoenixing ..

  4. John Anderson

    Unless PM Turnbull wants to lose a Minister [Sussan Ley] or buy a brawl with the Nationals, or both, he will not hold an election in March. The Writs would have to be issued before the NSW redistribution is finalised on 25 February 2016. The seats of Farrer and Riverina would have to be combined to ensure that 47 seats are in place. WA’s new boundaries with the extra seat, are finalised. The earliest date for an election with new NSW boundaries would be 2 April. Turnbull would not be concerned that Easter is the week before. He could also select april 9 or 16.

  5. AR

    Thanks to Bill, & [email protected], for such erudite & thoughtful material.
    I’m going to have to chew it over again but methinks (nod to theJames)late April.
    Perhaps Autumn when the olde worlde begins to die off?

  6. zut alors

    One would hope that by September even halfwits would be aware Emperor Turnbull is wearing policy clothes originally tailored by Abbott.

  7. Norman Hanscombe

    zut alors, those not, as you call them, “halfwits” are already more aware who best qualifies for the Emperor’s New Clothes tag, and they’re NOT any of your picks.

  8. AussieAchmed

    Turnbull will want to go soon and well before the union officials referred by the right wing Commissioner are having no charges laid or charges dropped by the DPP

  9. David Hand

    Gotta love these “Turnbull equals Abbott” posts. You guys are great!

    Another compelling reason why there will not be an early election is that I reckon no one on any side of politics has selected candidates for NSW electorates. They are all holding off until the boundary changes come into force. Pre-selections will then take place, probably April.

    Were Turnbull to call a March / April election, everyone would do a rushed job of selecting candidates on the existing boundaries and it would be utter chaos all round.

  10. Steve777

    If Malcolm decides to delay, the Murdochracy and the shock-jockracy will allow him a free pass. John Howard held the 2007 election 46 days after the anniversary of the previous election, which I don’t recall was an issue. It seems unlikely that we’ll have an election before the Budget. Assuming that the Government brings down a remotely responsible budget, they might want to have a bit of a buffer before the election. I think a date in November is on the cards if Malcoml doesn’t rush to the polls quickly and run on ‘union thuggery’.

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