GDP gloom and monetary moves. Tonight, the first estimate for the US economy’s first quarter growth will be released, and then a few hours later the US Federal Reserve releases its post-meeting statement on monetary policy -- a lot of info, but little movement is expected.
The US GDP figure is likely to be low -- 1.2% (annual and down from a weak 2.2% in the December quarter) or 0.3%, quarter- on-quarter is the current estimate due to the higher dollar, the slump in oil industry spending and the very cold winter. Some economists gloomily believe there could be negative growth. The first-quarter estimate is always the most rubbery and will be revised in the second and perhaps third stabs at a figure in the next two months as more data comes in.