The juxtaposition of the latest United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, released overnight, and the passage of the government’s inaptly named “direct action” policy last week, is a painful one for anyone who believes in basic science and is concerned about the economy we will bequeath future generations.
The “severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts” identified by the IPCC that climate change will inflict on the world are an economic threat: our children and their descendants will be significantly poorer as a result of the lower economic growth, higher prices and higher taxes that the impacts of climate change will impose on countries like Australia — and that’s before the higher mortality and population displacement that will result worldwide. The costs of climate change far outweigh the modest, indeed almost trivial, costs of using pricing mechanisms to decarbonise even a carbon-addicted economy like Australia’s.
The government’s direct inaction policy at least has that rare virtue of uniting climate action advocates and climate denialists — both agree it’s a waste of money. There’s nothing particularly wrong with Direct Action — it is simply an industry handout program that, however inappropriate for a post-entitlement age, won’t actually increase our carbon emissions. But with Clive Palmer and the Abbott government having removed a functioning, effective and cheap carbon pricing mechanism that was reducing Australia’s greenhouse emissions, Direct Action means Australia has no carbon abatement policy beyond the less efficient Renewable Energy Target — and the government wants to remove that as well.
With the Abbott government deep in climate denialism, serious climate action has been left to citizens. Switching to renewable energy, where affordable, can undermine the emissions-intensive fossil fuel sectors politicians like Greg Hunt hope to prop up. Pressuring superannuation funds and banks to withdraw from fossil fuel investment can help prevent the expansion of emissions-intensive extractive industries. These are less efficient and effective mechanisms than a carbon price — but the government has left us with no alternative if we genuinely care about the standard of living of our children.
49 thoughts on “Crikey says: with Abbott in denial, we must act”
wayne robinson
November 6, 2014 at 8:31 amKen,
I know it’s difficult for AGW deniers to accept, but the global warming ‘pause’ was manufactured by cherry picking the data set by retrospectively picking the start and finish of the data series, and confining it to lower atmosphere temperatures. That’s invalid statistically. It turns a statistically non-significant temperature meaningless., because it’s no longer an adequate (30 years) random sample.
I’ll accept that AGW a is wrong if it can be demonstrated that there are adequate negative feedbacks to cancel out the well known and well understood physical properties of greenhouse gases.
The Antarctic sea ice in some respects is irrelevant. The Arctic is really the important area. The Antarctic has been frozen for around 30 million years, and the Ice Age with its periodic glaciations only started around 3 million years ago when the Arctic froze.
We don’t actually know what’s going on in the oceans. The new ARGO sensors were only started to be rolled out in 2003, and there’s problems with correlations with the previous sensors.
You love citing one or two scientists, assuming you’ve got their opinions correct (which I doubt, since I seem to remember you’d also previously asserted that the only place there’s downwelling of warm surface water into the deep oceans is near the polar ice caps, and that a minor revision downwards in insolation at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere somehow invalidates AGW – I don’t have the time to check previous threads).
Anyway. In science, there are no authorities. Opinions of individual scientists aren’t automatically correct just because the scientist says so. It’s the consensus that’s important.
And the Economist isn’t a relevant source. I doubt seriously that there’s even any fact checking involved. I’d put its reliability a little above the Australian, but not much.
But anyway. To cut it short. The ‘pause’ was manufactured by cherry picking a short period. It’s not real. I only need one reason why it isn’t real, and it’s the true reason, the one that’s given first in any discussion of it. Having other reasons doesn’t invalidate the first good reason.
I’ll accept that AGW isn’t real if you can demonstrate why greenhouse gases don’t have the effects resulting from their well known and well understood physical properties, old boy.
Ken Lambert
November 6, 2014 at 11:33 amWayne,
Hansen and Trenberth are acknowledged leaders in their field and lead IPCC authors. Many climate science papers reference them. Go check Realclimate and SKS back to 2009 and find their references.
A reduction of 30-50% in warming imbalance is not a ‘minor’ revision.
And old son, if you know anything about heat transfer, GHG act like an insulator, slowing down the T1-T2 heat flow so that the diurnal cycle produces a higher average surface temperature. This tends to equilibrium.
And the central logical point remains in need of an answer:
“If 90% of the energy gain is being sequestered in the oceans over the last 17 years, inducing a miniscule almost unmeasurable water temperature rise, why would that not continue?”
wayne robinson
November 6, 2014 at 1:14 pmKen,
None of your cherry picking will convince me that AGW isn’t true. I don’t accept that the oceans aren’t warming, because we’re only just rolling out the technology to get a handle on what’s happening. I accept that AGW is happening solely based on the well understood and well known physical properties of greenhouse gases.
To paraphrase the question asked of Bill Nye and Ken Ham in the Creation debate; what would change your opinion about AGW. I’ve given you my answer – my opinion would change if it could be demonstrated that the facts about greenhouse gases are actually wrong or that there are sufficient negative feedbacks to cancel out any warming effect.
What would change your opinion?
Ken Lambert
November 6, 2014 at 10:03 pmWayne
“I don’t accept that the oceans aren’t warming, because we’re only just rolling out the technology to get a handle on what’s happening.”
This is the kind of logic which pervades the true believer industry.
What you are really saying is that even though we don’t have a ‘handle’ on what’s happening, I believe a dangerous warming is happening anyway. That is a faith based position.
My position is that the evidence is showing some warming but less (probably much less) than predicted by models, and therefore the CO2 theory as the dominant influence is looking weak. The effect of aerosols is a great unknown and the symmetry of NH and SH albedo is a major new fact unpredicted by models.
What would convince me either way is robust direct measurement of the TOA imbalance confirmed by similarly robust OHC measurement….
David Hand
November 6, 2014 at 10:17 pmWell I’m a bloke who believes AGW is true- that mankind is responsible for all that carbon going into the atmosphere.
I also believe that most of the climate lobby including people like Flannery and the IPCC have absolutely no idea what they’re talking about. This is demonstrated by their inability to cope with models whose predictions don’t come true and the change in language they use to hide embarrassing events.
The climate debate has been hijacked by fundamentalist zealots who know less about science than the average person.
It’s why a policy solution is so difficult because policy makers then look like they are in the thrall of nutters.
But I still think there’s more carbon in the atmosphere today than at any time in the last 10 million years and I think we should do something about it.
Ken Lambert
November 6, 2014 at 11:01 pmSuck it up David Hand…
That bit of warming and whatever bit of it is CO2 induced might just be keeping us out of an overdue ice age, which has proven to be really bad for life on Earth.
wayne robinson
November 7, 2014 at 12:37 amKen,
It’s predicted that with the Milankovitch cycles we’re due to go into another glaciation (not an ice age, we’re already in an ice age – there’s ice at both poles) in around another 20-30,000 years.
I realise now why you assert that you understand heat transfer when you claimed that a revision of the average insolation disproves AGW.
How about a simple analogy? Suppose you have a room with a 700 Watt radiator, and you want to determine adding a little insulation to the room will cause it to be warmer. So you measure the temperature in the room (which isn’t as easy as it appears, because the temperature isn’t the same throughout the room). Then measure the temperature with the added insulation. But only consider the temperature in the room after you’ve left a door open to a room which is hotter. And finish measure the temperature after you’ve opened a door to a room that’s colder. And in the intervening period change the sensors you’re using to measure the temperature. And finally you measure the power output and find that it’s not 700 Watts, but actually 690 Watts.
That’s actually what you’re doing. Taking lower atmospheric temperatures following a strong El Niño year causing atmospheric warming and finishing with a moderate La Niña year causing atmospheric cooling, in the midst of which there’s a change of oceanic sensors. And there’s also an irrelevant revision of average insolation downwards. And I still can’t see why you reckon that one paper reporting symmetry of North and South hemisphere albedo is significant.
I’m not worried that a temperature increase is difficult to demonstrate in the oceans. The heat capacity of the oceans is 400 times that of the atmosphere. The average temperature of the oceans could increase by 0.0025 degrees (which would be impossible to measure) and be equivalent in added heat to an increase in average atmospheric temperature of 1 degree.
I accept AGW as being true because of the well known and well understood physical properties of greenhouse gases. You don’t accept AGW because you think that the measurements of temperatures are absolutely reliable, reflecting actual average temperatures. Which they dont. At best they’re a proxy of what’s occurring.
Anyway. I’m not a ‘true believer’. I just accept that AGW is happening. I could change my opinion if, as I’ve written many times, greenhouse gases don’t have the physical properties ascribed to them.
graybul
November 7, 2014 at 2:28 pmComment: Wayne/Ken. Am really enjoying the “to and fro”. Though confess to flashes/images of Titanic . . like steeply angled foredeck . . Band playing Waltzing Matilda!!
Ken Lambert
November 7, 2014 at 11:48 pmWayne,
Have you heard of Gavin Schmidt at RealClimate blog?
Here is an intensive to and fro from May-Jun12 in which he and I have an interesting discussion on the ‘imbalance’. Check this out:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/05/ohc-modelobs-comparison-errata/
Note that Gavin is a real climate scientist and I am an enthusiastic amateur with a degree in engineering.
It takes some knowledge of the subject to understand the issues and links, but Gavin runs out of puff when I come up with 0.3W/m2 as the logical imbalance at comment #33.
Interesting new information…I informed him of Trenberth’s SKS opinion on Hansen’s ‘Asian aerosols’, and he informed me about the AGU meeting in December 2011 at which the SORCE TSI number was confirmed at 1361.5W/m2. I had an earlier discussion with Trenberth in which he told me that the SORCE people’s attempt at a balance using the their 1361.5 number was rubbish.
So the science isn’t settled.
Ken Lambert
November 8, 2014 at 10:31 amWayne. Graybul
I have a response in moderation (probably because it contains a link), which you might see on Monday if the Crikey kiddies get to it.
Graybul…thanks for the applause…I’m sure it will keep me and Wayne wanting to encore.