By any measure, the ALP has had a pretty horrendous time of late. In the last four years it has lost six state or federal elections, most of them by large margins, and its only victory (last March in South Australia) came despite winning only 47% of the two-party-preferred vote.

But the party could turn things around in Victoria, which goes to the polls in just under two months, on November 29. The Coalition scored the narrowest possible win there four years ago, taking a two-seat majority, and since then has had its fair share of troubles.