Aug 28, 2014

Retracing our steps on the march into Iraq

The parallels between the current path to intervention in Iraq and Syria and the Iraq War 11 years ago are uncanny and discomfitting.

Bernard Keane — Politics editor

Bernard Keane

Politics editor

It’s a good time to be in defence stocks in the US currently — they’ve all outperformed the market: Lockheed Martin shares are up 8.4% since President Obama announced airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Iraq. Raytheon is up 8%. General Dynamics is up over 8%. Northrop Grumman is up 6%. The Dow’s only up 4%; the Nasdaq 5.4%, the S&P 500 just 4.7%. All the companies’ shares have hit historical highs this week. And rightly so: we’re on the cusp of another major intervention in Iraq, and most likely in Syria as well, one that even Barack Obama says will be an extended effort.

As part of that effort, the New York Times revealed, Britain and Australia would be expected by the US to join an air campaign against Islamic State militants. Thus are all the pieces falling into place for a re-run — albeit, for now, on a smaller scale — of the misbegotten Iraq venture, that US$2 trillion exercise in significantly reducing both Iraqi life expectancy and the safety of Western citizens. The parallels are fascinating:

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20 thoughts on “Retracing our steps on the march into Iraq

  1. klewso

    What do you reckon would happen if IS told us that under them, we could get Iraqi oil cheaper than we get it now?

  2. klewso

    What was it Einstein said?
    [“Insanity : is doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results”?]

  3. klewso

    To be fair, Obama doesn’t have the “domestic imperatives” Abbott does?

    Which of course is the bright side in all this sabre-rattling dog-whistling :-
    who’s thinking about domestic politics while all this is being strung out by Murdoch, Abbott and friends?

  4. Duncan Gilbey

    The upshot of a military intervention will not be the “restoration” of democracy (as if…) but the disintegration of Iraq into 3 separate sub-states in at perpetual war with each other. I don’t see how this helps the Iraqis or us.

    Your average jihadist may be a misguided fanatic (or just misguided) but they are committed. IS will not be defeated, it will morph into something else in another place.

    Interfering again? How dumb can you get and still be able to breathe?

  5. j.oneill

    There are several reasons to be alarmed at the Abbott government’s apparent willingness to re-involve itself in Iraq and extend that involvement to Syria. A brief sample of those reasons would include:

    – the legal basis of such an intervention is far from clear, especially if IS forces in syria are attacked. Absent a Security Council resolution (highly unlikely) or an invitation from the Assad government (even less likely) there seems no obvious basis to invoke Art 51 of the UN Charter. The action would therefore probably be illegal under international laws.

    – any attack on IS forces in syria raises a number of conundrums. It would, for example, be in support of an Assad government that the US and its friends have been trying to dislodge for at least the past three years through arming, training and financing the very same forces now deemed to be a threat.

    – As Bernard notes, hysteria in favour of Australian involvement in war is coming from the usual suspects. Have they no shame and even shorter memories of past ill-advised advocacy.

    – Abbott is refusing a parliamentary debate, just as he is refusing an inquiry into the first Iraq fiasco. In a purported democracy that is nothing less than astonishing. War is rather too important to be left to yet another “captain’s call.”

  6. Michael

    Just more solutionless whining from Bernard and his fanbois.
    Happy to hear some positive contributions on halting the genocidal intent of ISIS.

  7. Luke Hellboy

    The break up of Iraq was inevitable since it was created by the Sykes-Picot accord post-WW1. The main aims of drawing up the borders was to divide the oil fields between British and French interests and to break up ethnic and religious groups so that inter-ethnic jealousies would distract them from anti-colonial actions. Any efforts by citizens in the middle east to install some form of representative government was subverted or overthown by European and American government puppets to ensure their oil company’s contracts for the last 100 years e.g. supporting Sadam Hussein. Even under Sadam’s brutal regime, he was only just able to exert control over the country.

    The most likely outcome of the current conflict is that IS will keep pushing until they come up against enough resistance from the Kurds in the north and the Shia militias in the south east and these will be the new borders of three new nations. There are Sunni militias that are either working with or at least not opposing IS who will be looking to have a more moderate version of Islam in which to raise their children once the dust settles.

    The other interesting thing to note is that if or when IS sets up a government to manage whatever territory they end up with, it will give western governments a lot more options to deal with them through traditional methods like trade imbalances and having infrastructures and populations that are now under their responsibility to protect. As Tony Abbott is finding out, tearing down a government is a lot easier than building an effective one.

    Whatever happens, the current explosion is from a bomb that has been ticking away for the last century.

    The most likely result of the current

  8. CML

    @ j.oneill – I agree 100%. Very well said!

  9. mikehilliard

    We can be certain of one thing, the GW Bush, Blair & Howard ‘solution’ was a disaster.

  10. fredex

    The Australian economy has problems, inequality is growing, the environment is under threat, unemployment is rising, newspaper circulation has plummeted and the current PM is deeply unpopular, the government is behind in the polls.

    Lets have a war!

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