Aug 15, 2014

Poll Bludger: calm down, Murdoch conspiracy theorists

Yes, Newspoll has recorded a fall in popularity for Labor. But don't be too quick to blame Rupert Murdoch -- the numbers tell a clearer story if you look a bit more closely.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

Three federal opinion polls this week offered something for everybody, with Labor taking a hit in Newspoll, extending its lead in Morgan, and staying put in Essential Research. But those who think Newspoll has it in for Labor should take a closer look at the numbers.

The Newspoll and Morgan results inspired much theorising on social media about which pollster was rigging its results in whose favour. However, the discrepancy becomes a lot less mysterious if we look beneath the surface of the headline figures and consider the results in a longer-term context.

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2 thoughts on “Poll Bludger: calm down, Murdoch conspiracy theorists

  1. CML

    I think Morgan is more believable because of the methodology.
    They poll people using face-to-face, landline and, most important of all, mobile phone.
    Most of the younger people I know, including two of my own in their thirties, only have a mobile phone. If you are not going to include them in such polls, then I doubt the authenticity of the results, regardless of which ‘party’ this might advantage.
    Would love to see a Newspoll taken using landline only, mobile only, and a combination of both for comparison purposes. Bet there would be a very large difference!

  2. klewso

    Can you blame anyone for being sceptical of the bona fides of anything Murdoch touches, even in jest?
    [The Montgomery Burnsesque history of Rupert?
    The allegory of his potentially carcinogenic nuclear power plant – where OH&S (PCPs/mission statements) is fancy for “D’ohs” – run for personal profit more than social beneficence – dominating “the world” of Springfield – the potential for damage when their respective “factories” (feeding the power needs of residents) malfunction – one for a cartoon society, the other on an ill-informed democracy? The lick-spittle undies of the calibre of Waylon Smithers?]

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