Jul 25, 2014

Will anyone miss Nielsen polling?

As the last ever Nielsen poll is published, the Coalition may be hoping for too much if they're expecting an opinion poll bounce in the wake of Abbott's handling of MH17.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

Only the dedicated psephologists among us are crass enough to say so out loud, but one of the big questions in politics at the moment is how much of an opinion poll bounce Tony Abbott can expect in the wake of his generally well-received handling of the MH17 tragedy. Notwithstanding three new federal polls that were published earlier this week, the present answer is that it’s still too early to say. Check back on this space in a week’s time and you will find the question attended to in unseemly detail.

For the time being, the big news in polling is that Fairfax has published the last result we’re ever going to get from Nielsen, which has chosen to close its Australian polling operation. This stands to deprive hardcore polling wonks of the intelligence Nielsen provides as to what might be going on beneath the primary vote trends — recent evidence of which could take some of the shine off whatever poll boost might be coming the government’s way.

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2 thoughts on “Will anyone miss Nielsen polling?

  1. Raaraa

    RE: basing preference flows on previous elections

    If we’re going to see the same trend now in the next elections, some of the PUP preferences are going to be way off in 2013 vs 2016.

  2. susansan

    Am I alone in feeling slowly nauseated on several fronts, instead of only one, in the wake of the rocket attack on a packed civilian airplane – whether that was accidental, semi-accidental or deliberate, and whether carried out by pro-Russian rebels or Ukrainian troops, in either case probably using Russian-supplied weaponry?

    First came the horror of imagining that event in the air, on the ground, and in the hearts of people of whatever nationality who have lost what have now become ‘human remains’ and once were their children, partners, parents, grandparents, friends.

    Secondly, it has slowly become nauseating to have the remains of this tragic event poked over as much in a tsunami of press commentary (mainly repeating the only few established possible ‘facts’, buried in a mudslide of supposition), as by the unruly insurgents on the ground. It has to be asked by now which of these two are the more flagrantly opportunistic, disrespectful, unseemly and worthy of disgust?

    Thirdly has come the painfully obvious fact that this has provided – above all? – a marvellous sabre-rattling opportunity for all those who believe they have something to gain by further poking the Russian bear. Among them, almost laughably, our own doughty lover of all things military, Tony Abbot, just as his slide down the polls was looking terminal for him. Expect more photographs of grave, ‘handling it well’, ”they will be brought to justice’ (how exactly?) Tony, posed in the vicinity of a) the flag, and/or b) anything resembling a military uniform.

    The amazingly inappropriate words of Peter Cosgrove declaring everyone on the flight to be ‘all Australians now’ will have to be simply passed over with a three minute silence, out of respect for the insult served to the emotional intelligence of everyone unfortunate enough to have heard them.

    And if it is really true that Julie Bishop arrived in Europe with a shitload not just of flowers but teddy-beds, in order to stage an ostentatious display of intensely sincere ‘sentiment’ – or should that be intensely sentimental ‘sincerity’? – then the nausea level around this incident has now gone critical.

    Politicians and media clustering around the event like vultures or maggots, feasting off the dead, stripping every shred of genuine horror from its bones, milking public sentiment to the point of ad nauseum, for reasons that can or will never speak their names…


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