Jul 4, 2014

Labor’s lead stretches to 53-47 as budget gloom lingers

It looked for a while like the Coalition's numbers were going to turn around, but this week's BludgerTrack shows Labor still ahead.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

For a couple of weeks there, those of us who follow opinion polls a little more closely than we should felt that the inflation in Labor support after the May 13 budget was losing a bit of air. That's looking less clear now, after four new polls this week which covered the full methodological gamut:
  • Labor's lead was back to its 55-45 peak in the latest Newspoll, after falling to 53-47 the previous fortnight. The poll was conducted for The Australian from Friday to Sunday, by live interviewers contacting 1161 respondents by landline phone.
  • Reflecting a long-established pattern, the fortnightly Roy Morgan poll leaned still further to Labor, showing an eye-catching two-party preferred result of 57.5-42.5. However, this comes down to 54.5-45.5 on the more conventional two-party preferred measure, which allocates minor parties' preferences as they flowed at the previous election. This poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends from a combined sample of 2797.
  • Labor’s lead in this week’s Essential Research poll was steady at 52-48 -- a stronger result than it looks given that Essential publishes a fortnightly rolling average, and the previous week’s result had Labor down two points. This suggests that Labor’s weakness in last week's sample wasn't repeated this week. Essential's weekly samples encompass around 1000 respondents from a volunteer panel of 100,000, who are surveyed online.
  • A ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network had Labor's lead at 53-47, compared with 54-46 at its last poll two weeks before the budget. This was an automated phone poll of 3376 respondents, conducted last Thursday.
A trend measure of all published federal polling, known to readers of my blog The Poll Bludger as BludgerTrack, records Labor increasing half a point on last week’s reading to reach a two-party lead of 53-47, while an accompanying seat projection has them one shy of Kevin Rudd's total of 83 seats at the 2007 election.

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3 thoughts on “Labor’s lead stretches to 53-47 as budget gloom lingers

  1. pinkocommierat

    Sink or swim, you dog-eat-dog capitalists.

  2. Ian Roberts

    Tony has taken us back to terra nullius! He clearly never got past that mindset. Maybe it’s a good thing that we can now ALL see just how ugly these libs actually are. They’ve dropped their masks since the election – the semblance of civilisation too hard to maintain in their victory revels. Let’s hope Australians don’t like what they now see.

  3. Kennedy michael

    It will be interesting to watch the accuracy of the Newspoll over time as if it continues to rely solely on landline surveys. The switch to mobile phones as as a person’s only phone by many and particularly the under 30’s may not show up in Newspolls in the future. Will this mean a more conservative population for Newspoll and thus skew the results or not?

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