Jun 23, 2014

Smoking out the truth in the Oz‘s plain packaging war

You can cherry-pick the data to prove the case either way, but it seems The Australian's war on plain packaging is self-defeating in the face of evidence.

The Australian has launched another salvo in its bizarre war with Crikey, Media Watch, economist Stephen Koukoulas, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and common sense over tobacco plain packaging. The story thus far: the Oz published a highly dubious story using research funded by Big Tobacco arguing that the number of cigarettes sold in Australia had gone up since the introduction of plain packaging. Media Watch (and Crikey, days before) debunked the story. The Australian doubled down on its original claim, devoting five new stories to the claims. Since then, The Australian has continued the assault with articles by Judith Sloan and, over the weekend, a column from Henry Ergas:
"… basic economics shows that instead of lowering tobacco consumption, plain packaging may increase it, and the risk of cancer with it. "The reasons are straight­forward. Before plain packaging, at least some consumers were willing to pay a premium to consume, and be seen to consume, the higher quality brands. Moreover, each brand had its own, expensively cultivated, image and loyal clientele. With rivalry between brands focused on 'look and feel', the result was to mute price competition in the industry, thereby raising cigarette prices and lowering ­demand ... "... as a result, by lowering prices, plain packaging may actually boost consumption, compared to what would have happened without it. And with teenagers’ demand for cigarettes about three times as price responsive as that of adults, the perverse consequence may be to enlarge the base of younger smokers [former health minister Nicola] Roxon pledged her policy would shrink."
Note the "may" boost production, but it might not. It depends if price is more effective than other cultural influences over consumer behaviour, like “cool”. The argument is pretty theoretical anyway, given the tobacco excise increases are dramatically increasing the price. Here is the ABS data on aggregate spend, over the long term:

tobacco graph

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13 thoughts on “Smoking out the truth in the Oz‘s plain packaging war

  1. klewso

    It’s in print – someone, somewhere, is going to quote Murdoch’s “The Oz Rent-seeker” (tag-teamed to it’s IPA Rent-a-Crowd, with it’s sponsorship-habit) as an authority, for their own purposes.
    While others will look to facts.

  2. Steve777

    I was wondering whether that article in the Australian a couple of weeks ago was an opening salvo in an IPA/Liberal/Big Tobacco push to reverse plain packaging laws. It has the marks of being a campaign of some sort, although the Australian usually doesn’t just make stuff up, leaving that sort of thing to its tabloid stablemeates.

    Perhaps it was a matter of ‘run a flag up a pole and see who salutes’, testing the water.

    In any case Plain Packaging will probably work. How do we know? Well, the Tobacco industry hates it.

  3. 81dvl

    “It’s fair enough that the state does what it can to prevent smoking given it picks up the healthcare costs.”

    Please – really – someone check ‘Tobbacco revenue’ at ABS. This is so often quoted as support for the moral high-ground and is simply not true. The facts will astound.

    I remember when to “Profit from the sale of a drug of addiction”, was a serious offence. Now the government is behaving like a neighbourhood dealer; pushing up prices because people are addicted and the ‘market’ is cornered.

  4. Thadeus Thermopylite

    @Steve777 – the most plausible theory I’ve heard is that it’s more targeted at influencing UK lawmakers on behalf of uncle Rupert & his Big Tobacco backers

  5. 19 maurice

    The Australian’s ‘campaign’ is a pretty flagrant attempt to frame the plain packaging debate in the UK. viz. How can it be a good idea for the UK if it’s been so ‘ineffective’ in Australia? Look it says so in “The Australian”…(Doubt Peddling 101)

    This is almost as silly as the argument from big tobacco two years ago in Australia that “it’s never worked anywhere else so why try it here”. Remember that one? Oh how we laughed….

    That long term graph shows the effects of mandatory warning labels (1972), banning TV advertising (1976), banning print adverts (1989), public indoor smoking restrictions (mid 90’s), restricted sport sponsorship (late 90’s), the end of point of sale adverts in the mid 00’s with trend ‘elbows’ rather well doesn’t it?

    Not sure about the vertical axis however. It says 1000’S of something, not sure what. There was 5000 of ’em in 1959 and 3500 of ’em in 2013 and it peaked at about 7600 in 1975.

    What exactly is meant by ‘aggregate spend’ in the context of this article? (Wikipedia says it’s something to do with US healthcare spending…)

  6. Camille Bache

    Whether its plain packaing or not, cigarettes will always be on sale since a lot of people are smoking.

  7. CML

    @81dvl – I agree with your comments, but most of the ‘holier than thou’ lot do not want to talk about the billions made by the government through the sale of tobacco products. This is more than enough to take are of the health costs of smokers.

    On a different tack – what about the sales of so called illegal tobacco products? There are many stories in the media about truck loads of cheap, suspect cigs/tobacco (chop chop?) being pedaled around the country. My guess is that if these could be quantified, the purchase of tobacco products overall has indeed increased. So much for plain packaging?!!

  8. CML

    …take care of. Sorry.

  9. rhwombat

    CML: I’m a physician who treats the victims of the tobacco trade. Like the slave trade, on which the tobacco industry was based, the cost for victims is in no way compensated for by the pathetic amount of the blood money coughed up by victims of Big Tobacco – or do you still cling to the pathetic belief that the naked evil of predatory capitalism is justified by your addiction?

  10. Scott

    It’s still a legal product people. And we are talking.about the government taking intellectual property away from a business.

    At the minimum there should be evidence that smoking is reduced as a consequence of plain packaging. It’s not good enough to say, because its big tobacco, anything goes.

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