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Apr 10, 2014

Turnbull pulls the plug on FTTP, so 'we're back to the drawing board'

More than 3.4 million Australian homes are stuck with bog-standard broadband, thanks to the Coalition's latest NBN misstep. Our own correspondent feels dudded.


That’s it. For me, anyway, and residents of some 3.4 million Australian homes — ironically perhaps the most willing and able to pay for fast broadband. We’re set to miss out on fibre to the premise, because we sit within the footprint of the existing hybrid-fibre or coaxial cable network that delivers pay TV.

Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull decided our fate yesterday when he instructed NBN Co., chaired by former Telstra boss Ziggy Switkowski, to work towards a multi-technology mix for the National Broadband Network. Retaining the HFC network is a fundamental plank of the MTM strategy.

This is not news to anyone following the NBN closely, it’s just that now it’s official. We already knew the Coalition intention — when in opposition, Malcolm Turnbull decried the inherent waste of money, with the government paying hundreds of millions of dollars to shut down the perfectly serviceable HFC networks.

The NBN Co. strategic review released in December included MTM as the preferred option and envisaged that about 30% of homes would get the NBN through a substantially like upgraded HFC network that will deliver FTTP-like broadband.

The release of the strategic review sparked a fierce debate among the technology specialists about whether the HFC network was up to it. Among the concerns was serviceability of an overhead cable network that, although much younger than copper, had been exposed to the weather for 20 years. Crikey put this to Telstra chief David Thodey at the half-year results — he flatly rejected it, given Telstra had just spent $300 million upgrading the HFC network in Melbourne.

Journalist Adam Turner wrote two strong pieces arguing it wasn’t. After copping flak from Turnbull’s office, Turner ultimately conceded the quality of broadband delivered via HFC depended on how much was invested in the the upgrade, and he feared the government’s attitude — reasonably, given Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s view that FTTP is “wacko” and Treasurer Joe Hockey’s confected budget crisis — would be that “near enough was good enough”.

Guru (and NBN Co. director, admittedly) Simon Hackett wrote an excellent analysis which argued the gaps in the HFC network will be filled in, and there will be more nodes meaning less competition among local households for bandwidth (which slows down present HFC internet at the moment to 100/2Mbps (download/upload speed). Certainly, it seems, the broadband delivered over the HFC network now is no guide to the broadband that will be delivered via HFC by NBN Co. in the future.

What is also certain, however, is that it won’t be as good as FTTP. It will be delivered sooner, at lower cost to the NBN and therefore the country. It will give FTTP-like performance perhaps — and hopefully, where it falls short, it will be priced more cheaply.

Like everything to do with the NBN, it is hard to be definitive about any of this because it is still up in the air and depends crucially on the deals negotiated with Telstra and Optus. Under its $9 billion deal with Telstra (the government was going to kick in an extra $2 billion to fund the universal service obligation), NBN was to buy the HFC network and shut down voice and data so only Foxtel could come down the line. The price was never split out. NBN was also going to pay about $800 million for Optus’ HFC network. We also don’t know yet how much of NBN’s budget will be set aside to upgrade the HFC network.

Last week, Business Spectator‘s Alan Kohler wrote a heartfelt memo to Turnbull — “don’t stuff up the NBN” — which rang true: he’d spoken to people in inner Melbourne’s Brunswick, which already has FTTP, to find out what they thought of the NBN and what they were doing with it. Striking was one NBN customer Melissa who just loved the internet speeds: “It’s increased the value of our house, no doubt about it. We’ll never again live where they haven’t got the NBN.”

Critics accuse Kohler of talking his own book — Business Spectator is an online business, the argument goes — but for mine it rang true. Arguments about the impact of broadband on property prices are terribly subjective. But I’d hazard a guess that frustration with slow internet is the norm by now and with the NBN it’s almost the opposite of the usual NIMBY syndrome (perhaps we need a new acronym: BRIMBY — bring it to my back yard).

BBY telecommunications analyst Mark McDonnell says there is a definite industry consensus that using the HFC network is an incredibly efficient way to deliver fast broadband, albeit not as fast as FTTP. Still he wonders where the government is going with the NBN and the mix of technologies: “It’s in no man’s land. Literally, we’re back to the drawing board.”


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35 thoughts on “Turnbull pulls the plug on FTTP, so ‘we’re back to the drawing board’

  1. Nevil Kingston-Brown

    What does MTM mean?

  2. Sammy Harry

    Building a chaotic system for a rather short future. Turnbull will go down in history.

  3. wayne robinson

    I currently have HFC. I used to have ADSL2, but I dropped it because its download speeds at many times ranged from slow to glacial. I pay Bigpond an extra $20 a month (not an enormous sum) for the promise that they’ll remove the brakes and allow a download speed of up to 100 Mbps.

    I just checked – my last download speed was 33 Mbps (which I’m extremely pleased with – it’s fast enough for my needs).

    But I’m aware that as more people in my area become dissatisfied with ADSL2 and shift to Cable, my speeds will drop.

    Not pleased Malcolm…

  4. Vincent O'Donnell

    MTM = Multi-Technology Mix, ie everything from fibre optic cable to wet string.

    What now need further explanation is why Optus chose to decommission their HFC network. Optus gave evidence to a Senate committee that they were better of financially to use the FTTP provided by the NBN to deliver their broadband services.

    Lithuania has a FTTP penetration approaching 509% while OZ will be the poor white IT trash of Asia. Thanks loads.

  5. Vincent O'Donnell

    Sorry folks, that’s 50% not 509%.

  6. TJDW

    I’ve said it in many other places and I’ll say it here too. This is the official death of the NBN. There will no longer be a singular, ubiquitous network that benefits all Australians equally. There will not be any technological innovation in this country. There will not be foreign investment thanks to our broadband speeds. We will not be able to compete with New Zealand and our other Asian neighbours. FTTN and HFC will not, I repeat NOT deliver the kind of broadband service we will need in 10 years’ time. In most cases it’s barely able to deliver the speeds we need now. This is purely and simply an ideological move by the Coalition. They refuse to admit that Labor got it right the first time. They’re not interested in what’s best for the country. If they were, they’d be trying to find a way to make a FTTP rollout faster and affordable, not replace it with inferior technology that is already obsolete right now. We’re about to spend $41 billion on a network that will not be able to cope with demand when we could spend just a fraction more ($56 billion vs $41 billion – admittedly a lot of money but then this IS an infrastructure project – ie. it will make that money back and then some) to get the NBN completed properly with FTTP. Telstra, Foxtel and Optus will be laughing all the way to the bank, having offloaded the maintenance and operating costs of networks that they no longer want at tax payers’ expense.

    Further, anyone who is living in a home with FTTP right now is in a very fortunate position. In a few years’ time when the MTM network officially falls apart either by economic problems or by the simple fact that it is not up to the task of handling our digital future, their houses will increase in value exponentially.

  7. Graeski

    The Liberal Party antipathy towards the NBN has never had anything to do with technology or social or business benefits. Its all purely about ideology: the rest is just a smokescreen. The NBN as envisaged by Labor put the Australian communications network back in the hands of the Australian people rather than the hands of wealthy ruling elite and there is no way the Liberals could countenance such evil “socialism”.

  8. zut alors

    There’s much about Malcolm Turnbull I admire.

    That a man of such intelligence would align himself with a pig-in-a-poke sub-standard communications system is inexplicable. I’m one of the lucky ones with FTTP…but it means I can only ever move residences within this telephone exchange area if I wish to have access to a premium internet service. Any future ‘for sale’ ad will boast FTTP & add value to the property.

    Turnbull/Abbott/Hockey are hellbent on a high-maintenance mess which will waste taxpayers’ money & deliver ongoing headaches. None of them is man enough to admit the Rudd NBN was good policy. Worst of all is Turnbull as he fully understands their woeful compromise and what might have been…

  9. Chris Hartwell

    Is it too much to ask that it be done right the first time? Evidently so.

  10. Brian Williams

    I feel the same way Zut. MT is no idiot, but he has no choice other than to bow to Joffrey’s (sorry Tonys) luddite megalomania.

    I’m one of those stuck in the no-mans land of an inner/middle Melbourne suburb that doesn’t even have one of the HFC cables in our street, so I’m hoping Simon Hackett is right about infill in areas like mine, but I’m not holding my breath.

    Given that Malcolm doesn’t have the balls to fight the party ideologues on this, the least he could do is make it cheaper for those who want to upgrade to FTTP when the node comes to our corner. Malcolm – how about when the node arrives, you do a mailout to everyone in the street and ask how many would be willing to pay for FTTP right there and then, because the staff and cable will be there and, literally, ready to roll. If only one household wants it, you charge them 5K. If 10 houses want it, you drop it to 1K per house, etc etc. Your costs will be covered, and people like us just might consider voting for you again in 2016.

  11. Ronson Dalby

    Oh so disappointed with Simon Hackett now he’s wearing a new hat instead of the Internode one.

  12. Ronson Dalby

    “Arguments about the impact of broadband on property prices are terribly subjective.”

    The availability of full unimpeded NBN will certainly be a factor in the decision to buy my next home as it was for my son who bought his first home last month.

  13. graybul

    At a time when rest of world is introducing cutting edge technology infrastructure, Ideology driven Australian Government nails down lid smothering nation’s future competitiveness. Why? Because their political adversaries “lit the lamp first”! And for that petty misdemeanour Australia’s “saddle bags” have been loaded chock full of old degraded copper and lead weights. West Australians got it so right! Neither Liberals or their opponent “Lost Souls” deserve support. Govern for the Nation’s good . . my arse!

  14. pinkocommierat

    Good news for Foxtel and crap news for everyone else. NBNCo are soon installing its network in my suburb… so, it like like we miss out to please a greedy tycoon.

  15. John64

    “and there will be more nodes meaning less competition among local households for bandwidth (which slows down present HFC internet at the moment to 100/2Mbps (download/upload speed)”

    You mean present HFC users can get 100Mbps download speeds? Oh boohoo, poor them. How about the rest of us stuck on 1 Mbps ADSL? That’s the problem with internet in this country. It’s not that some people don’t have fibre, it’s that our internet is plain medieval.

  16. klewso

    A brain going to waste.

  17. Simon Mansfield

    Malcolm is completely overrated – he just appeals to the Green Left ’cause he’s a warmist. But on this issue he’s clearly a denialist – and should forever more be regarded with scorn, derision and never ending contempt.

  18. The Pav

    Given the Minister for Communication’s lack of ability to stand up to Joffre perhaps he should change to Malcoln Turncow(ard)

  19. zut alors

    I see today Abbott is in China boasting that ‘Team Australia’ is there to ‘help build the Asian century.’ Alas, he means the 20th century, have the Chinese twigged yet?

    In the interests of avoiding a future war let’s hope he desists from offering any advice on communications systems & recommending they copy Malcolm’s national bandaid & patch internet.

  20. DiddyWrote

    KLUDGE – An ill-assorted collection of poorly matching parts forming a distressing whole.

  21. AR

    within the footprint of the existing hybrid-fibre or coaxial cable network that delivers pay TV. That wouldn’t have anything at all to do with Mudorc’s monomaniacal mendacity re Labor since 2008, would it?

  22. Kez

    “fibre to the premise” ??? It’s premises singular and plural.

  23. @chrispydog

    MTM is a new acronym: Malcolm Turnbull’s Mess

  24. The Old Bill

    Thank goodness we got the old NBN satellite to the Home before it was too late. It will now be a good 20 years before our neighbours get anything like our download speed.
    Interestingly our country exchange actually has fibre optic cable from a few years ago, but Telstra won’t put in the required equipment to give our small village proper broadband of the old variety. Hence most of us have internet via the mobile phone tower and a lucky three of us have satellite. No wonder Labor moved heaven and earth to cut Telstra out of the broadband equation, its just very few voters could see through the Murdoch /Telstra/Liberal hype.

  25. PaulM

    It’s a “premises”, not a “premise”

  26. morebento

    Ah well we’ll need to just do it when the ALP / Greens get back in power in a few years time.

  27. Liamj

    This should bury the ‘Turnbull is man of principle/intelligence/sanity’ advertorials, he’s just the best salesman out of a very poor bunch and quite willing to sell a blind 3 legged pony as if it were Phar Lap.

    And the great thing is that your average LNP voter wont even miss fibre, wouldn’t know what to do with it if they had it, they’re happy overpaying for last years US cable rejects and ‘roided corporate sports. Never give a sucker a glimpse of value for money, thats Malcolm and the Murdochs’ motto.

  28. Tyger Tyger

    It’s frustrating how governments justify gutting programs like this because of the “cost”. If the private sector were doing it, it would of course be an “investment”.
    World’s-best broadband to as many people as possible means innovation, new industies, better jobs, a stronger economy, all adding up to more revenue for governments state and federal.
    I also seem to recall reading somewhere that about 75% of the “cost” of the original NBN was to be expended in the building of the network, meaning much of that money would go straight back into the economy via the businesses and workers involved.

  29. Aidan Stanger

    HFC is there, is relatively cheap, and the requirements of most users are well within its capabilities, so it makes sense to use it.

    What doesn’t make any sense at all (with interest rates as low as they are) is the plan to use FTTN in areas that don’t have HFC. Expensive to run, doesn’t meet user requirements and within a few years the copper will have degraded so much that it will all have to be replaced with FTTP anyway.

  30. Stuart Coyle

    So much for the “Infrastructure Prime Minister”. He thinks that infrastructure is all to do
    with coal mines, gas plants and ports for the benefit of big business. That is 19th century infrastructure made from concrete and steel.

    We are in the 21st century. Infrastructure for the next century involves optics, electronics and software. I guess there is no chance that the technophobic uneducated old men in power will ever understand that.

  31. Brett Coster

    I’m on HFC in Melbourne’s east. Yesterday contacted Telstra/Bigpond to find out what the guaranteed minimum was for HFC, seeing as most speed tests come up around 7.5 to 8.5 mbps, and occasionally, late at night, SBS On Demand/iView show speeds of about 15 mbps.

    Telstra guarantee is “10 mbps up to 30”. For $20 extra per month I can get the “up to 100mbps” (minimum of 30 “guaranteed”). Or I could pay a service fee for one of their techs to come out and test the connection (isn’t it guaranteed?).

    Looks like it’s only a guarantee if you do your own checking and perhaps pay for them to confirm it, which seems somewhat arse-about to me.

    Meanwhile, in the next street the HFC cable ends halfway down and is rolled up around one of the poles. Possibly taken down in one of the last storms in our heavily gum-treed neighbourhood. Roll on the 20th century.

  32. lindent

    There will need to be a massively expensive upgrade of the HFC network if my recent experience is a guide. I am on the Optus HFC network for phone, TV and internet. So far in 2014, there have been eight significant total loss of service events ranging from 10 minutes to two days duration. NBN over that?

  33. klewso

    Diddle – “…a distressing black whole.”

  34. Chris Hartwell

    @The Old Bill – my exchange when I lived on the Tablelands had fibre as far back as ’98. Of course, the exchange itself didn’t have the hardware to support it… But the fibre was there!

    End result: Friends still living up north get speeds I can only dream of in Brisbane, in a new suburb!

  35. Dogs breakfast

    Nothing so clearly shows the ideological bent of the LNP as this outmoded policy.

    Nothing so clearly shows that they have no understanding of the difference between a cost and an investment.

    The full FTTP NBN was a no-brainer, a future-proofing of what will become the backbone of our productivity for decades to come, while also sorting out the telecommunications mess left/created by Beazley and Howard/Costello.

    Nope, just band-aids and wishful thinking, and it seems that ideology is the reason.

    Worst decision ever, excepting a bunch of Costello tax and superannuation decisions that have already taken the gold medal.

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