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Mar 17, 2014

Crimea vote: Russia’s big win, but what now for Ukraine?

The people of Crimea have, overwhelmingly and expectedly, voted to throw their lot in with Russia. But there were a litany of problems in a referendum that was technically unconstitutional.

Professor Damien Kingsbury

Crikey international affairs commentator

Lining up with death and taxes, the outcome of the weekend’s vote in Crimea on whether or not to join Russia was certain before the event. Somewhat remarkably — with about two-thirds of Crimea’s population being ethnic Russian and the other third being openly opposed to joining Russia — the vote to join Russia was said to be running in excess of 90%.

While the outcome of the vote may have reflected reluctance by non-Russians to vote in a referendum that was a foregone conclusion,  it also — at least in part — continued to confirm doubts about the veracity of the result. Foreign journalists had been largely cleared from Crimea before the vote and no independent ballot monitors were allowed.

The referendum was marked by the extremity of the pro-Russia propaganda. Billboards told Crimean citizens that the choice was between Crimean voting for becoming Russian or becoming Nazi. This was in reference to about 10% of Ukraine’s parliament comprising far-right or neo-Nazi party representatives.

The referendum question, too, was whether Crimeans wished to join Russia immediately, or if they wished to be independent, leaving open the option of joining Ukraine at a later date. That Crimea is currently a part of Ukraine was not identified in the referendum.

But backed by Russian troops on the ground and Russian naval ships blockading the strategic port at Sevastapol, the question of nuance over language was only one of a litany of critical problems facing the technically unconstitutional referendum.

The real question now is whether Russia acts to incorporate Ukarine, as passed by its own Parliament two weeks ago. The alternative is that Russia’s President Valdimir Putin could use the vote in favour of unity with Russia to further pressure Ukraine into “voluntarily” turning away from the European Union and returning to the Russian economic camp.

With an estimated 60,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders too, and considerable dissent and pro-Russian sympathy in eastern Ukraine, the government in Kiev will be disinclined to try to wrestle back control of Crimea by military means. At best, this would spark a civil war, which would leave Ukraine divided. At worst it would lead to a Russian invasion, which Ukraine would not be able to stop.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government’s friends in the West remain conflicted on what action to take over Russia’s heavy-handedness in Crimea. Germany in particular is taking a softer line on proposed economic sanctions than other EU countries.

Economic sanctions are likely. This then plays into the hands of the Kremlin’s hard-liners, who have long been in favour of a split with the West. Instead, they are seeking to strengthen ties with an increasingly powerful China. Some even want a deliberately confrontational relationship with the West, by way of reasserting Russia’s status as a power worthy of the world’s attention.

United States Secretary of State John Kerry says he still hopes for a compromise arrangement with President Putin, in a bid to resolve the Ukraine crisis. The difficulty with this is, increasingly, there is no mood in Moscow for a deal. In any case, as Russians will tell you, in Russian there is no equivalent for the English word “compromise”.

In linguistic theory there is, broadly, a view that the language that is available defines one’s ability to conceptualise — if the word does not exist then neither does the corresponding idea. If this leaves what English speakers might regard as a gap in how Russians thereby understand the world, they might take even less comfort from the further fact that, in Russian, there are seven different words for “enemy”.

*Professor Damien Kingsbury is director of the Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights at Deakin University

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3 thoughts on “Crimea vote: Russia’s big win, but what now for Ukraine?

  1. Ross Kapernick

    I have only read the first part of this beat up.
    The following is false to start with.
    [1]Only one small section of Extremist Tartars told there people not to vote.
    All other groups told there people to Vote as they saw fit. Obviously many voted to join the Russian Federation. A choice Crimea despite its long association with Russia was never given in the 1990’s when Russia with a gun held to its head by Ukraine and the USA and Britain signed the agreement that resulted in it being incorporated in Ukraine. In any Just Legal system agreements obtained under duress are void.
    [2] Crimea or Russia did not stop independent observers from going there. Most being Western based bowed down to US and British pressure and chose not to go. Much of there funding of course comes from USA, NGO’s. Who would go except the very Principled. No money next time.
    [3] The total number of people who did vote was about 83%. The figures are still not final but 95% of 83% proves your statement 1/3 would vote against any breakaway from Ukraine untrue.
    [4]There are some independent observers and Journalists there. The few that have reported seem to think the Voting was conducted fairly and it did appear most wanted to vote to join the Russian Federation.
    [5] You are not being balanced when you talk about Crimea and Russian Propaganda. Nobody has run more propaganda on this issue than US Media.

    I will not go on: To comment further will only give this story [part fiction] some credibility.

    The simple fact is Democracy has prevailed after 20+ years of being denied. Russia and Crimea hold the moral high ground. Legally both sides are Technically in breach of Agreements and the Ukraine constitution etc.
    If the matter could be taken to an International Court and judged on normal Common Law Principles I am certain both Crimea and Russia would win. They hold the moral high ground. Very similar to the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Probably about 99% of the people there welcomed the Russians coming and rescuing them from the Georgian invasion.

  2. AR

    At least the “Prof’s” stipend from Langley is worth more these days. Crikey, why do you publish this shill for the Hegemon?

  3. condel

    John Kerry can’t play chess with Putin. Putin is 65 moves a head. He is not going after
    kiev. Ukraine is a failed state, Putin is happy for Ukraine to drift about – let nato, eu etc
    bail it out and as it will far apart within, it’s threat to Russia will decline. let the eu impose austerity measures to save it. crimiea is over, gone, done – Putin will keep it economically stable and promote law and order – word of that will spread. crimea is easy to make more prosperous, the 65m people will lose its love for the west, they will run for putin in 5 years. but fist they have to be let down by eu and usa. that will take 4 years.