Jan 17, 2014

Tasmanian election: Lara is toast, but what about Clive?

The Tasmanian Liberals look set to win the state government at the March poll -- but could Clive Palmer's party cause an upset? Crikey's polling analyst crunches the numbers.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

Tasmanians will go to the polls on March 15, Premier Lara Giddings yesterday confirmed, setting up a super Saturday of simultaneous state elections in Tasmania and South Australia. In both cases, the hopes of Labor — the last remaining Labor governments at a state or federal level — look grim.

Labor’s prospects look particularly bleak in Tasmania, where the party has been in power since 1998. That makes the Bacon-Lennon-Bartlett-Giddings government the same age as Kristina Keneally’s in New South Wales and two years older than Anna Bligh’s in Queensland at the time of their respective massacres in 2011 and 2012. In each case, a strong sense prevailed that all concerned would have been better off if the governments had gone down to more honourable defeats a term sooner.

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7 thoughts on “Tasmanian election: Lara is toast, but what about Clive?

  1. CML

    Why is it ‘parliamentary chaos’ in Australia if the end result of an election is a so-called hung parliament? Various European countries have had this set-up for decades, and there doesn’t seem to be chaos there.
    Aren’t we being just a little bit precious? Or can we legitimately blame the major political parties for the spin they use in damning hung parliaments? All to advantage themselves, of course!
    Wouldn’t it nice if ALL political parties in this country understood the gentle art of compromise, and started acting like adults for a change.

  2. Charles Richardson

    Clear and sensible as usual, William. One point, though: my recollection from 2010 is that it was the Liberals who refused to do business with the Greens, not the other way around.

  3. grubbidok

    Apparently it’s only chaos when two left-wing parties that don’t like each other form power in a coalition. When it’s two right-wing parties that despise each other it’s called ‘adult government’ (and yes I know there are no Nats in Tas, I’m just tired of the hung parliament = chaos meme).

  4. AR

    CML – you, I and other commenters here have made this point since August 2010 (if not earlier.
    FCS, germany took a couple of months after its last election and… formed a soi disant Grand Coaltion of putative opponents.
    ALL northern euroid countries have multi party coalitions – it is only the Benighted States that clings to “us vs them”.
    And of course its dag end, OZ.

  5. bushby jane

    Did I read somewhere that if Queensland had had a Hare Clark voting system like ours, then Campbell Newman wouldn’t have won?
    I don’t know who to vote for in Tasmania-clearly we need to get rid of Giddings, the new Federal Libs are just mouthpieces for (presumably) Peta Credlin and there is no reason to think that the State ones would be any different. All they really need to do in Tasmania I think is to get rid of all the entrenched middle and upper public service to create a more effective govt.

  6. Robert O'Keefe

    I think there’s a lot more to the Tasmania race than covered in this piece. The Greens have just emerged from 3 and a bit years in Government Ministries with objectively good indicators (NAPLAN scores up, bus trips up, bus violence down, emissions down, public housing built etc etc). This may be the first time the Greens have a clear record to spruik. It is certainly the first time in recent political memory that a ‘third force’, relative newcomers to the political scene, have had access to executive power.

    The Federal election came at the lower-end of a Tas Greens polling slump. Their numbers have (Apparently) since rebounded almost to their usual %20ish levels and they’re set to run a campaign with more organisation, professionalism and resources than they’ve ever had.

    Sure, there won’t be any kind of upset Greens majority win, but equally I wouldn’t be speculating about a Greens wipeout. Palmer might claw some disaffected blue-collars from Tasmania’s north and swipe a seat or two, but Hobart City, Franklin, and to a lesser extent Launceston are squarely in Green hands.

    No chance the Greens will fall below 2 seats – but I think there’s a realistic chance of them holding onto 3 or 4 with an average to decent campaign, keeping their foot in the door of Tasmanian parliament.

    If Labor can claw back a little ground and make the most of the Abbott factor, then we might end up with either three oppositions or a hung 4-party parliament in March.

    Won’t that be fun!

  7. drsmithy

    If Labor can claw back a little ground and make the most of the Abbott factor, then we might end up with either three oppositions or a hung 4-party parliament in March.

    Won’t that be fun!

    I dunno, is Australia ready for something starting to resemble actual democracy ?

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