Sep 13, 2013

The landslide that wasn’t: how Labor kept its Sydney heartland

The polls pointed to a landslide to the Liberals in Sydney, but Labor managed to retain its base. How did they do it, and how did the polls get it so wrong? Crikey intern Angelo Risso reports.

Polling conducted prior to Saturday’s election pointed to a Labor wipeout in Sydney. They needn’t have worried. So how did the party retain its base out west?


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10 thoughts on “The landslide that wasn’t: how Labor kept its Sydney heartland

  1. Tim Senior

    And also those final days before the election had the coalition costings brief and sweaty press conference, closely followed by the internet filter hokey cokey policy (in, out, shake it all about) both of which may have swung voters Labor’s way after the final polls were taken.

  2. cnewt27

    So David Burchell, a rightist regular on the ABC, blames the “media” and “pollsters” for getting polls based in small groups of seats wrong. Come on, David, name it. Murdoch and Newspoll did this. i listened to the ABC RN during the election and every morning Fran droned on and on about the polls, every day, every poll. I was told there would be a 10% swing against the PM in Griffith and a week later, with no trace of embarrassment, I was told there would be a 4% swing across Qld. The missing 6% didn’t seem to trouble those good people at the ABC for whom the news is whatever is on the front pages of News Ltd papers. Every day. To suggest, as David Burchill seems to, that wasn’t deliberate manipulation of polls is hard to swallow. Just how much does he make in a year writing “think’ pieces for the Murdoch press? Is he, like Tim Wilson, considered a sharp mind by Crikey?

  3. shepherdmarilyn

    All the pollsters need a holiday, I hear there is an empty tent on Nauru.

  4. klewso

    The pollsters should be sacked – how much is mushroom compost worth?

  5. Malcolm Street

    Burchell’s explanation doesn’t make sense to me. If large areas of Western Sydney had become swinging voters, more seats would have changed hands. And what does he mean by “On the whole Australians do not punish governments to the extent of creating one-party systems … once they know an election is gone, they’ll try to limit their power.”? Surely that’s why many electors will vote differently from the Senate – I’m not aware of this being a factor in the Reps. Frankly, doing this in the Reps doesn’t make sense – if the government has a majority in the Reps it has a majority in the Reps so you might as well vote to have a voice in the government.

    Methinks he’s just trying to find some explanation other than that there’s something wrong with the polling methodology.

    While we’re on polls, did any of them predict the real Labor wipeout, in Tassie?

  6. Malcolm Street

    Or shorter Burchell – large areas of Western Sydney are now swinging voters which is why they didn’t swing… WTF???

  7. @Keening_Product

    Malcolm: there was some mention of Tassie, but it wasn’t a pivotal point of coverage for most of the election.

  8. Edward James

    Moving forward lets all enjoy the Labor opposition leader selection process! Will there be more than two nominations? Edward James

  9. [email protected]

    My email address changed some time ago to [email protected] to which you have been sending regular emails until last week when I only got 2. What has happened?
    Lesley jeffrey

  10. Edward James

    ABA well that is certainly “short” Oh dear. Edward James

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