A broad-based state breakdown of polling since late July suggests Labor is in with a chance of holding onto power even if it loses the popular vote nationwide.

A collation of Essential Research’s polling results over the last four weeks, which yields a sample size of 3805, shows widely divergent swings between the states behind a 51-49% national two-party preferred outcome in favour of the Coalition (this week’s Essential two-party preferred polling moved back to 50-50).

The counter-intuitive result reflects how much Labor is banking on being able to use gains in Queensland to offset losses elsewhere. But it also shows the dramatic turnaround in Labor's fortunes since the same numbers were run earlier in the year.