Tony Abbott has been running hard. With wife Margie on hand. And all of that weekend effort for fun, apparently.

And as for a policy debate, each team was pretending to be tougher and nastier than the other in dealing with people arriving by boat. Not much fun about that.

The result of another week of campaigning effort? Not much change according to our indicator — a slight increase in the probability of a Coalition victory.

My readers not so sure. Those readers kind enough to take part in my latest predictions survey are not so sure that the Coalition should be favourite. On average they estimate that come election day Labor will gain 50.1% of the two-party preferred vote, which would perhaps leave us with another hung parliament.

As to what the pollsters will show this week, the consensus from our survey was that the Newspoll figure tomorrow will be Labor on 50% with Essential today rounded up to 50% from an actual average of 49.6%.

Headline of the day.

The Bulletin splashes on page one with a report of a passionate speech by Townsville-based Senator Ian Macdonald for legalising fireworks to pave the way for a return to cracker nights, which would boost tourism.

News and views noted along the way.

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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