A tactical delay. Newspoll had beaten a tactical retreat until next week, which I suppose makes some kind of sense for those that pay the bills. Next Tuesday will have more impact on what happens within the Labor Party caucus than publishing along with Nielsen this week. Not that I think actual poll results are needed. My readers seem quite capable to me of predicting what the interviews with thousands of voters will come up with.

The readers, on average, thought Essential would show a Labor two-party preferred share of 45%, and it came in at 46%. With Nielsen the prediction of 44% compared with the actual of 43%. One a point under and the other a point over — I’d call that a creditable draw.

Too much to last.The aspect of the Nielsen poll receiving most coverage is the apparent seven-point drop in the number of men saying they would vote Labor. To me that seems an extraordinarily high change to have occurred over a month. I expect a substantial reversal when next month’s poll is published.

Tweet of the morning. Long ago Queensland premier Peter Beattie makes a contribution to the federal  leadership debate:

Which prompted this:

Understanding Barry. NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell has been given a bit of stick for treating his Finance Minister Greg Pearce relatively lightly for a minor spending misdemeanour and for becoming tired and emotional during a Legislative Council sitting. Pearce received a month off to rest and recuperate while others were calling for his sacking.

To understand the Premier’s decision, take a look at the breakup of the Legislative Council membership and then image dealing with that lot with a disgruntled Liberal to worry about.

News and views noted along the way.

  • Dog owners turn to mind readers — “It is the age-old and seemingly answerless question: What in the world is my dog thinking? It has spawned a growing market not only of scientific research but of everything from decks of pet tarot cards to television and radio shows and books by pet psychics and animal trainers.”
  • Analyst says China’s credit bubble is unlike anything in modern history — “China’s shadow banking system is out of control and under mounting stress as borrowers struggle to roll over short-term debts, Fitch Ratings has warned. The agency said the scale of credit was so extreme that the country would find it very hard to grow its way out of the excesses as in past episodes, implying tougher times ahead.”
  • Neither Grexit nor Grecovery — “One year after taking office, the government of Antonis Samaras is trying to persuade anyone willing to listen that the end of the crisis is near. But the reality from Greek streets sunk in apathy belies the optimistic front the prime minister puts up for the international bodies.”
  • The meaning of Ryanair — “Orwell got it wrong. It is not governments but banks, insurance companies, pension funds and low-cost airlines, the raucous cheerleaders of deregulation, that oppress and stupefy us with a network of small and baffling rules.”
  • The ring and the rings: Vladimir Putin’s mafia Olympics — “‘Mafia state’ may sound extreme, but these winter games will go down in history as perhaps the most audacious act of embezzlement in human history. … Even more nauseating, if not surprising, than the alleged theft/attempted murder is the shrug of the shoulders from the International Olympic Committee.”
  • China to launch pilot carbon market in Shenzhen [partial $]
  • The boss stops here — “A nonhierarchical workplace may just be a more creative and happier one. But how would you feel if the whole office voted on whether to hire you — and when to give you a raise?”
  • Police seek approval to use documents — “Victoria Police will seek to use documents taken from prominent law firm Slater & Gordon in framing potential criminal charges over the Australian Workers Union slush fund scandal.”

Peter Fray

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