The Australian’s foreign editor Greg Sheridan on Sky News yesterday:

“I think it is 90% likely that it [the North Korea military threat] is bluff …”

Zhang Liangui, professor of international strategic research at the Communist Party’s Central Party School, in The South China Morning Post today:

“There is a 70 to 80 per cent chance that a war will happen …”

It’s a percentage game, see. It just depends on who you believe.