Jan 31, 2013

Labor’s rocky road: what Gillard has to do to hold on

That we're going to an election in September was no surprise. But the date doesn't make Julia Gillard's road to retaining government any easier. Crikey's poll cruncher looks at what she has to do to hold on.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

Diverting though yesterday’s election date announcement may have been, its contribution to the sum of human knowledge should not be overestimated. There was already no remaining doubt the Prime Minister was budgeting for a normal full-term election for the House and half the Senate, which left her with a fairly narrow window of opportunity for its timing.

The unorthodox alternative of an earlier poll exclusively for the House of Representatives was, and remains, foreseeable only in the event of parliamentary rebellion or leadership change. These are distant prospects, but they haven’t been made any more so by Gillard announcing when she will, God willing, hold the election.

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16 thoughts on “Labor’s rocky road: what Gillard has to do to hold on

  1. Lucky Phil

    Surprised that more hasn’t been made of Gillard’s fragile majority with the demise of Peter Slipper and the potential for a successful no confidence motion by Abbott early in the sitting year. Naming the date might be more about pulling the rug out from under Abbott forcing an early election rather than the worry of a non-existent Rudd Challenge.

  2. John Bennetts

    Phil, when you mentioned Peter Slipper, did it cross your mind to mention those who stood by him for a decade or more as he relentlessly and systematically rorted, or those who tried to set him up via an underling’s trumped-up complaint and civil action?

    Methinks the slender majority is not as frail as some wish it to be.

    September is a long way off.

  3. John Bennetts

    Would somebody please give William Bowe a phrase to use instead of the awful, meaningless, American cliche, “inside the beltway”?

  4. Bill Hilliger

    @John Bennetts – hear, hear! We should not try so hard to always ape Americans.

  5. billie

    Tony Abbott endorsed Richard Torbay’s canditure for seat of Lyne or New England saying he had been his best man. Some endorsement Tony Abbott was Peter Slipper’s best man

  6. Paddy Forsayeth

    Tones doesn’t have to worry too much…the MSM would never publish his glaring turnarounds, contradictions and the odd somersault.

  7. Savonrepus

    Rocky road alright – Day 1: Craig Thomson arrested

  8. Damian O''Connor

    Yep, as a newbie psephologist I agree with all your good work above. The only point on which I might differ is that, should the Government have been in a winning position now, I don’t think they’d be bothered about having a later half Senate election. They’d go. In short, not just rebellion or leadership – pollcrunch.wordpress.com

  9. Steve Fleay

    Reality says it’s all about Labor limiting the damage at this election to start a little closer in 2016.
    The telling point is to ask what seats could Labor gain?
    Unfortunately the best outcome we could hope for would be for Malcolm to depose Tony which is unlikely with current polling. Conservatism of the Abbott religious flavour will cast a pall over Australia.

  10. wilful

    If “inside the beltway” isn’t punishable by some sort of whipping from the Crikey subbie, I’m not sure what is.

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