Richard Farmer’s chunky bits: selective opinion polling

Selective opinion polling. I'm something of "a-pox-on-all-of-them" person when it comes to taking notice of opinion polls 12 months before an election but I'm perverse

Richard Farmer

Crikey political commentator

Selective opinion polling. I'm something of "a-pox-on-all-of-them" person when it comes to taking notice of opinion polls 12 months before an election but I'm perverse enough to note that Roy Morgan Research slipped out what it described as a Christmas present for Julia Gillard this week, putting the two party preferred vote at Labor 52.5% (yes, that's right, Labor 52.5%) to the Coalition's 47.5%. The political journalists seem to have dismissed Roy's efforts as being irrelevant these days but who am I to judge? I'll just stick with the assessment of the market.

A verdict on the Labor ministry. With a judgment that the government she leads has only a 25% chance or so of winning the next election, my end of year report on the performance of Julia Gillard would have to be a harsh one. Anyone who thought the Morgan polling team were anywhere near right would be far more generous in their assessment. Far better that Crikey readers mark the ministerial report card than me so deliver your verdict.

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