Selective opinion polling. I'm something of "a-pox-on-all-of-them" person when it comes to taking notice of opinion polls 12 months before an election but I'm perverse enough to note that Roy Morgan Research slipped out what it described as a Christmas present for Julia Gillard this week, putting the two party preferred vote at Labor 52.5% (yes, that's right, Labor 52.5%) to the Coalition's 47.5%. The political journalists seem to have dismissed Roy's efforts as being irrelevant these days but who am I to judge?

I'll just stick with the assessment of the market.