After a period of complaints about Newspoll’s volatility, the latest result (related as usual by James J) is all but unchanged on the last: Labor and the Coalition steady on 36% and 43%, with the Greens up one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady on 51-49. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are likewise perfectly unchanged at 37% approval and 52% disapproval, although Tony Abbott is up three points on approval from a dire result last time to 30%, and down two on disapproval to 61%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 46-32 to 46-33. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1156.
UPDATE: The Courier-Mail today publishes federal voting intention results from the same Galaxy poll that produced yesterday’s state numbers. It shows Labor making a handy three point gain since the last poll in September at the direct expense of the Coalition, with the two parties at 33% and 46%. However, the Greens are down two points to 8%, which means there is only a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, to 56-44.
The Herald Sun also has a JWS Research automated phone poll survey of 1391 Victorian voters conducted last Wednesday, with better results for the Baillieu government than Newspoll: the Coalition leads 48% to 38% on the primary vote and 52.1-47.9 on two-party preferred.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research has the Coalition gaining a point on the primary vote for the second successive week, now at 47%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 36% and 10%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47. Essential has also gauged support for the National Broadband Network and the Mineral Resources Rent Tax, which was very strong in each case, as well as for “the carbon pricing scheme – a tax on industries based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit”. It appears the extra detail in the question elicited stronger than usual support, which was at 46% against 44% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe a Coalition government should appeal it against 37% opposed, and 44% expect they would do so against 32% who don’t. On the question of its impact, “worse than expected” and “not as bad as expected” are both on 26%, with as expected on 36%.
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