United States

Nov 6, 2012

Whichever way you look at it, Obama will win

Mitt Romney's camp insists their man can carry the key states. But however you cut the polling, and even allowing for error and uncertainty around turnout, Barack Obama is in the box seat. Crikey crunches the numbers.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

Of all the controversies in a frenzied final week of a tense presidential election campaign, none has been more fraught than the small matter of who is most likely to win.

One view, shared by statistical forecasters, betting markets and state-level opinion polls, has Barack Obama as a strong favourite — perhaps something more than that. The highest profile of the forecasters, FiveThirtyEight wunderkind Nate Silver, gives Obama an 86.3% chance of victory at the time of writing. An even more bullish view of Obama’s prospects is offered by Silver’s equally credible rival Sam Wang, a neurologist who has been putting his powers of analysis to work for the Princeton Election Consortium. Wang has two models on offer, one of which puts Obama’s chances at 98.3%, the other at 99.9%.

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41 comments

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41 thoughts on “Whichever way you look at it, Obama will win

  1. Dion Giles

    The American voters had better not count their chooks before they’re hatched. American elections are about as honest as Zimbabwean elections. Two Internet items this morning show once again the forces lined up to steal the current US presidential election from the voters.

    http://readersupportednews.org/news-section2/318-66/14367-focus-last-minute-ohio-directive-could-trash-legal-votes (This bombshell was fired today. I’ve put a comment in to let American readers know how voting is conducted in the civilised world).

    http://truth-out.org/news/item/12494-map-of-voter-id-laws-nationwide

    A democratic poll – on an actual issue, labelling of genetically-poisoned food – is on in California same day as the presidential farce.

  2. Edward James

    Australia, australia how will we be affected by the USA election result? Edward James

  3. Michael

    This is terrific news for Romney (by the way he’ll win by a landslide) because I can’t recall the last time PollBludger got an ection result right.

  4. rhwombat

    Edward [email protected]: for one thing, I don’t think the Rabbott’s boat will support the influx of Republican Ratfuckers & Tory Teapots looking for refuge from repercussive reality that ended the Thatcher/Reagan era. Just think of it as Karl Rove’s (or Mark Textor’s) vultures coming home to roost.

  5. michael r james

    If you look at the trend lines in Nate Silver’s meta-data graphs for Florida, I reckon there is a fair chance Obama will retain Florida. If there were a few more days he would also claim NC too, but there isn’t time. However, given that any of this data is at least 48-72 h old, there was really almost 4 days equivalent to extrapolate: unless something unexpected happens this projects to a narrow win in Florida for Obama.

    Independent of that, I suspect the polls in Florida are underestimating BO’s support (Puerto Rican Hispanics being newer and less conservative than Cuban Hispanics; Florida is a hurricane state and will have taken lessons from Sandy), but that is perhaps wishful thinking. Not so much on behalf of Obama (who will not need Florida) but in the hope that all the southern Hispanic states including Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and Florida are all in the process of turning purple. (Of course NM is actually beyond purple being blue already.) This spells long-term oblivion for the nuttier conservatives–which of course will self-correct and thus might bring some more rational politics to the US.

  6. William Bowe

    Michael, I’m willing to be you can’t remember the last time I got one wrong either.

  7. Edward James

    rhwombat once in a green moon perhaps/ Edward James

  8. toby shepherd

    btw this is ptmd

  9. toby shepherd

    Well, if Romney wins in the USA and PMJG wins in Australia, maybe all the rightwing nutters here will immigrate to the USA and leave the rest of us alone for a while.

  10. Lord Barry Bonkton

    Has Obama won yet ?

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