New South Wales

Sep 20, 2012

ALP candidate in Sydney byelection ‘unlikely’: senior Labor source

The Australian Labor Party is unlikely to contest the imminent Sydney byelection triggered by the enforced resignation of veteran MP Clover Moore.

Andrew Crook — Former <em>Crikey</em> Senior Journalist

Andrew Crook

Former Crikey Senior Journalist

The ALP is “unlikely” to contest the imminent Sydney byelection triggered by the forced resignation of veteran MP Clover Moore.


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3 thoughts on “ALP candidate in Sydney byelection ‘unlikely’: senior Labor source

  1. Harley Dennett

    The entirely premise of this article is that, unless forced to do so, voters would not direct preferences to a second ideologically-near candidate. Is there any evidence for this? Perhaps previous election preference flows, rather than simple TPP percentages? Poliquant and Antony Green both fail to cite this obvious source, so it’s surprising that Crook does also.

    My next concern is the belief that inner-city voters will elect a single-issue inexperienced candidate to a parliament not responsible for that issue on the simple basis that he is anointed by the popular experienced multi-issue incumbent.

  2. Chris Maltby

    In the 2011 state election, when Labor’s Sacha Blumen was excluded from the count holding 5,377 votes they were distributed to the remaining candidates for the Greens (1,009), Clover (755) and Liberal (290). But 3,323 (62%) had no valid next preference and were exhausted. At the next count, just under 50% of the Greens votes exhausted too, but Clover got about 70% of the ones that didn’t.

    At the end of the count, nearly 17% of the initial formal vote had exhausted, more than the primary votes of all but Clover and the Liberal candidate. Getting 42% of the initial formal vote would have been enough to win. The absence of a Labor candidate would have reduced that exhausted proportion by about half, and as the preferences of those Labor voters who did take the opportunity were 85% progressive, that could have been a net swing of about 5% to the progressive side in the final result.

    Worth having…

  3. Andrew Crook

    No, Harley, the “entire premise” of the article is that powerful elements inside NSW Labor don’t want to run a candidate for the reasons outlined. Agreed, Chris.

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