An eminently sensible Poll Bludger but … Our Crikey election specialist, the Poll Bludger, gives a sensibly reasoned case why not too much significance should be attached to a Greens victory in the coming weekend Melbourne state byelection. The byelection campaign having been sucked into the vortex of national politics, he writes, Canberra press gallery journalists have been having their overheated way with its federal implications. The suggestion that a Labor loss “should in and of itself cause ‘shock waves’ is pure hyperbole.”

The operative word in his analysis is “should” because rational analysis does not have much to do with Labor Party thinking at the moment. My guess is that defeat “would” cause plenty of “shock waves” – waves that for no good reason would wash over Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

And probably will if the betting markets are any guide.

Here’s the latest Crikey Melbourne By-election Indicator:

And an update on the other Crikey indicators.

Some news and views noted along the way.

Peter Fray

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