An eminently sensible Poll Bludger but … Our Crikey election specialist, the Poll Bludger, gives a sensibly reasoned case why not too much significance should be attached to a Greens victory in the coming weekend Melbourne state byelection. The byelection campaign having been sucked into the vortex of national politics, he writes, Canberra press gallery journalists have been having their overheated way with its federal implications. The suggestion that a Labor loss “should in and of itself cause ‘shock waves’ is pure hyperbole.”
The operative word in his analysis is “should” because rational analysis does not have much to do with Labor Party thinking at the moment. My guess is that defeat “would” cause plenty of “shock waves” – waves that for no good reason would wash over Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
And probably will if the betting markets are any guide.
Here’s the latest Crikey Melbourne By-election Indicator:
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And an update on the other Crikey indicators.
Some news and views noted along the way.
- Libor scandal to hit more banks.
- JPMorgan Chase triples estimates losses from trading in complex financial derivatives to $5.8bn but reports “surprisingly strong” three months profit.
- Visa and Mastercard make $7.25bn fees dispute settlement.
- Banks are now viewed as incompetent profiteers run by spivs — Seven ways to clean up our banking “cesspit”.
- This time it’s different: China edition.
- Chinese “economic miracle”, slowed yes, but still humming.
- Economic hardship may continue for a period of time, warns Chinese premier Wen Jiabao.
- Smoking Causes Cancer. Carbon Pollution Causes Extreme Weather. It really doesn’t have to be more complicated than that.
- The more gray matter you have, the more altruistic you are.