In an “exclusive” splashed across the front page of today’s Australian, Canberra-based Sid Maher and Matthew Franklin reported “internal ALP polling” that seemed to say Jennifer Kanis was doomed in her quest to hold off the rising Greens tide in the looming Melbourne byelection.
While a poll in one small state district 800 kilometres from The Oz‘s principal newsroom doesn’t usually make it above the fold, in this case special circumstances applied — this appeared to be a straight up destabilisation drop to white-ant Julia Gillard.
As Crikey noted on Monday, the most intriguing element to come out of the NSW Right’s Greens smackdown is the leadership dynamic, as Kevin Rudd readies himself to be rescued from backbench purgatory by right-aligned unions and MPs.
While Maher and Franklin’s yarn was thin on detail, the (presumably federal, presumably Right) source made certain one telling metric was included: “three times as many people cited the performance of the federal government rather than the performance of the state government as the reason they would not vote for Labor”.
This amounted to a sanctioned attack on Gillard by the faction that backed her in February — now the Rudd-backing Left and elements of Right are starting to agree.
But on policy, the factions remain at war. Behind the scenes, and despite the apparent support of federal Left conveners like Stephen Jones, Labor’s inner-city left — those actually running Kanis’ campaign — has been troubled by the broader Greens attack launched by luminaries north of the Murray.
In the state seat of Melbourne, the ALP vote has nearly halved over the last 10 years. And it’s the prospect of one day losing their grip on the federal fiefdoms of Sydney and Grayndler (and continuing to be shut out in Melbourne) that has driven the dismay — even if the Liberals mimic NSW Labor’s bid to put the Greens last.
The Left’s Melissa Parke — who could conceivably come under pressure in Fremantle — provided some pushback yesterday, saying the move amounted to “mutually assured destruction”.
One senior Victorian Left source concurred, but said the NSW Right’s motivation went beyond the impact on the primary vote and stemmed from a deep-seated desire to see the destruction of the Left’s grassroots infrastructure.
“The real winners here are the Right of the party,” they said. “They’ll be happy as Larry that the rest of us are tied up in ethical knots while they get to continue to de-legitimise progressives both inside the party and out. The [Sam] Dastyaris, [David] Feeneys and [Michael] Danbys will be dancing a jig. Their logic is perfectly self-perpetuating: paint the Greens as extremists and ipso facto, anyone who holds their pinko-lefty beliefs is similarly invalid.”
On this view, the votes lost to the Greens are the same types of people that have for decades been the kind of professional or academic types that provide what’s left of Labor with its intellectual rigour and political legitimacy.
“Thinking people in those seats automatically know that the Greens’ policy on asylum seekers isn’t ‘loopy’ or radical … every time the federal party launches that line they have a gut reaction that makes them switch sides,” the source said.
“The federal parliamentary Left are letting their well-founded concerns about the safety of asylum seekers blind them to the true intentions of Dastyari and co … they might shore-up some Western Sydney electorates, but in doing so they’ll create Greens fortresses in what were traditional Labor heartlands.”
Sam Dastyari slammed that view as “farcical” this morning: “Inner city branches are crucial to Labor’s success and there’s been a great amount of support from parliamentary Left leaders including Stephen Jones and Doug Cameron,” he said.
“The Labor Party needs to be united and work together to achieve its social and political outcomes.”
But beneath the vitriol, there remains one possible point of convergence — a swelling of support for Rudd to retake the Lodge. Watch this space.
45 thoughts on “Labor Right white-ants Gillard as Rudd rises”
Hugh (Charlie) McColl
July 11, 2012 at 9:31 pmAR, I’d appreciate the line and letter on your suggestion that “The AEC rules state that a ballot is valid if the intention of the voter is clear and someone deliberately exhausting their preference makes it clear that it is intentional rather than inept.”
From my very limited scrutineering experience I would suggest that a 1,2,2,2 vote does not make clear which candidate gets the second preference. So I don’t think that would be a valid vote but I’m happy to be corrected.
Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)
July 11, 2012 at 9:45 pm@Russell,
I’m not familiar with the Sydney situation.
Tonight’s news is Melbourne is a Liberal dominated council and the Liberal State Member both opposing a big building project in their area which is going ahead thanks to the Liberal government. So ‘not-in-my-backyard’ is common.
Another problem with some public transport proposals is that they are grossly overpriced projects when much more can be achieved with the money if better spent.
But to the big picture for Melbourne – the Auditor General released a report a while ago saying that over the long term neglect of public transport by Liberal and Labor meant that the system would not cope with future demand unless billions were spent for several years.
Also in Melbourne neither Labor nor Liberal have done anything about removing train level crossings. So adding more trains to some lines can now only be done at the price of almost closing the crossings during peak periods.
So I’ll stick with my claim that Labor (and Liberal) are still more focussed on roads whilst only the Greens recognise that things must change.
Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)
July 11, 2012 at 9:46 pmI’m being moderated, so that’s all from me tonight.
geomac62
July 11, 2012 at 10:14 pmHugh (Charlie) McColl
While voting is compulsory and I agree with that idea I wonder if using your preference is ? It just occurred to me that the question is pointless because its more about the vote being valid . I assume they don,t allow Langers way because then it becomes first past the post .
CliffG
July 11, 2012 at 11:23 pmLabor doesn’t have a chance until it stops playing Russian Roulette! Rudd will save no-one.
CML
July 12, 2012 at 12:08 amOn Lateline (ABC) tonight it was reported that the rAbbott is talking about bringing Industrial Relations laws back to the “centre”!!! Work Choices Mark 2 has arrived. That might change a few peoples’ voting intentions. If not, they deserve all they get!!
klewso
July 12, 2012 at 1:00 amWhen voting federally :- Senate the option to vote “above/below”;
the lower (House of Reps;/”The House of Legislation”) you have to “exhaust/allocate” your preferences 1-2-3-4 … whatever), otherwise you’re “vote” is rendered “Informal”?
Hugh (Charlie) McColl
July 12, 2012 at 12:41 pmKlewso/Geomac62, turning up and having your name ticked off the roll satisfies your legal obligation to vote. After that, if you want your vote to actually count and not be rejected as ‘informal’ you must do as you are instructed on the ballot paper itself. If it says number all the squares then you must do that – without repeating any numbers (subject to AR’s claim that 1,2,2,2 is OK – I don’t think so). You must not write stuff on the ballot paper because if you do it may be rejected as informal because you may inadvertently identify yourself – not allowed. Cleverdick actions usually become informal votes.
eric
July 12, 2012 at 12:49 pmClearly Gillard has to go fairly soon but to bring back the failed hated Rudd would be just as big a disaster.
Who would he have in his cabinet seeing nearly all the current ministers bagged him and many said they wouldnt serve under him again?.
Might be time for Shorten to step up.
Owen Gary
July 12, 2012 at 3:20 pmThe problem with Labor is what has been stated time & time again, the party has been completely shuffled to the starboard side & controlled by big business interests, changing the leader won’t make a blind bit of difference.
When people realise that big business interests don’t represent the interests & wellbeing of the people, they will be dealt with swiftly.
@Eric
shorten is a traitorous maggot, I can personally attest to this. The big miners have him groomed for the top job make no mistake!