There’s only one poll that counts, of course. No, not on election day — nobody can wait that long. It’s Crikey blogger Possum Comitatus‘ Pollytrend graph:

Polls jump around, buoying and betraying parties week-to-week. It’s the trend when you factor them all in — Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Roy Morgan, Essential Research, etc — that counts. And for Labor, it still looks ugly. As Possum reports:

“Over the past three months or so we’ve witnessed a gradual decline in Labor’s two-party preferred, with that four-month-strong flat-lining of 46/54 to the Coalition finally coming to an end in the last week of February. Between March and mid-May the ALP experienced a three-point fade in the two-party preferred vote — running at about a one-point loss a month — followed by a slight one-point recovery over the past three weeks or so.”

Recent polls may have given Labor some hope, but the trend is down. Way down.

Probably irreversibly.

Peter Fray

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