Another worrying opinion poll for Ted Baillieu, whose honeymoon period appeared to conk out barely a year after his government took office in late November 2010. This poll gives the Coalition a delicate two-party lead of 51-49, which compares with the 51.6-48.4 result that delivered the narrowest of victories at the election. It’s also a return to the November-December result, before the Coalition improved to 53-47 in January-February. Their primary vote in the current poll is 42%, compared with 45% in the previous poll and 44.8% at the election, but Labor is also down a point to an unimpressive 32% (36.2% at the election). Most of the slack has been taken up by the Greens, whose three-point gain to 17% returns them to the peaks they enjoyed in mid-2010, before they went on to a relatively modest 11.2% at the election.

Baillieu is also suffering rapidly deteriorating personal ratings, such as have been known to give rise to the proverbial “speculation” from time to time. Whereas he remained in net positive territory in the previous poll, at 41% approval and 38% disapproval, this time he’s respectively at 38% and 45%. Labor leader Daniel Andrews has improved off a low base, his approval up five to 28% and disapproval down one to 35%, with many still undecided. Baillieu still has a commanding lead as preferred premier, but this too has diminished, from 51-19 to 46-23.

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