The Queensland election:
Les Heimann writes: Re. “Poll Bludger: the hole where Qld Labor used to be” (yesterday, item 1). That Labor was almost thrust into oblivion in Queensland was extremely predictable — as was the case to a lesser degree in New South Wales. In both those states Labor politics and internal party control had for too long been exposed as tawdry and unclean. At least with the conservatives one knows what to expect.
Looking at Queensland where the LNP hold almost every seat in that state’s parliament, they only enjoy the support of a little under half the voting public — this voting outcome had to be utterly predictable in the light of Katter’s Australian Party picking up huge chunks of Labor voters and optional (read no) preference flow.
So what of federal Labor?
The “oust Labor” case rests on a perceived premise that Gillard breaks promises. The “keep Labor” case is mounted on the Hewson/Keating precedent — the dreadful alternative.
The Australian voter knows full well what the choice is: on the one hand — a party that stands for nothing. On the other hand — a party that doesn’t know what it stands for.
Labor will be defeated at the next election. However, this prognostication depends on the size of the “Hewson effect” and, although unlikely, a last-minute direction being found — and successfully narrated — by Labor.
Tony Douglas writes: The Bligh government lost 10% of its primary vote (base voters too) within weeks of its 2009 election victory when it broke its promise not to privatise state assets
This not only went against Labor values — voters felt they had been lied to as the policy reversal happened a matter of weeks after the election promise was made. Those voters never came back.
This followed the pattern in NSW where the Labor government again went against itys policy and attempted to privatise its electricity system. They lost at least 10% of their vote (from the base) and never recovered.
Both elections were decided long before the campaign.
Colin Ross writes: Wow! The LNP get 50% of the vote and get 88% of the seats. The ALP get 27% of the vote and get 8% of the seats. Don’t you just love democracy in action.