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Mar 12, 2012

It's time in Qld, but maybe not for Newman

The campaign for next fortnight's Queensland state election has well and truly lived up to its promise as one of the most fascinating in recent Australian history.


The campaign for next fortnight’s Queensland state election has well and truly lived up to its promise as one of the most fascinating in recent Australian history.

It has been made so not by the political upheavals, party splits and voter alienation that normally characterise memorable electoral contests, but by a single act of human folly.

But for the Liberal National Party’s decision to foist a prospective new premier upon parliament through a kamikaze attack on a broadly green-left inner-urban seat, the election’s only point of interest would be the size of the landslide awaiting to be inflicted on a tired and discredited Labor government.

The LNP’s strategy is not so much audacious as profoundly confused: it seemed at once so frightened of Anna Bligh’s post-floods poll spike that it reacted with what looked for all the world like a desperate gamble, and yet so confident that it founded this gamble upon a hubristic tilt at a seat with a Labor margin of more than 7%.

The fear was clearly unfounded — one needed only to look at the aftermath of the Victorian bushfires in 2009, when Labor under John Brumby shot to an ephemeral 60-40 lead in Newspoll, to see that Queensland’s electoral rhythms would soon reassert themselves, as indeed they had by the middle of last year. And the confidence would have been correspondingly well placed, had it not been for the time bomb the party activated for itself with the Newman-for-Ashgrove strategy.

So obvious was this folly that even psephologists could see it. In a prescient piece at the time, the plot was hatched a year ago, Peter Brent of Mumble spoke of a “dumb move by a traumatised party”, which offered the government a “tiny hope of survival” it would not have otherwise had. Reminded of the 2006 election, when a Labor government encumbered by the “Dr Death” catastrophe won in a landslide thanks to confusion over which of the two conservative leaders should be treated as the premier-designate, I warned on my blog of “yet another mid-campaign implosion” if “polling were to emerge showing Newman falling short”.

So it has come to pass over the past few days. First came ReachTel’s Ashgrove poll on Thursday — the seventh such poll it has been able to conduct since September thanks to its low-cost automated phone poll methodology — which showed Labor member Kate Jones in a statistical dead heat with Newman, with Jones in fact having a headline-grabbing lead on the published two-party preferred figure.

One could always have argued that it wouldn’t do to read too much into such a result: the variability of polling is such that individual polls should be treated cautiously at the best of times, and ReachTel in particular is a new outfit that has produced some eccentric figures in its polling of other electorates (albeit that these have consistently taken the form of disastrous numbers for Labor).

But the bigger point is that it was never going to take much to activate concerns about Newman’s capacity to win Ashgrove, and hence to place grave doubts about the LNP at the centre of a campaign that should have been all about the disposal of an unwanted old government.

Then came The Courier-Mail’s publication on Saturday of a large-sample poll conducted by Galaxy, which uses tried-and-tested phone surveying and has as good a track record as any pollster in the game. This produced a still worse set of figures for Newman: he and Jones were level on 45% of the primary vote, which after distribution of Greens preferences pointed to a Labor win by a margin of 1.5%.

The final fortnight of the campaign will thus be entirely about what might happen should the result play out as polling indicates, with the LNP winning the election but Newman losing Ashgrove. The LNP has responded with yet more strategic confusion: voters at large are being assured defeat in Ashgrove won’t happen, while voters in Ashgrove are being scared into line with talk of dire consequences (“no plan B”) if it does.

Labor will thus go into the final fortnight of the campaign with a stronger hand to play than it could ever have dared hope.

And yet for all that, Newman still looks a better bet to carry Ashgrove than Labor does to fulfill its part of the bargain by winning the actual election. The reason for this is the one factor in electoral politics that overrides all others: the “it’s time” factor.

I have just spent an improving couple of hours playing with a dataset of mainland state election figures going back to the start of the 1980s, which points to a fairly robust association between a government’s time in office and its two-party preferred vote. The upshot is that a government of Labor’s longevity in Queensland has little right to anticipate a two-party preferred vote north of 45%.

This is even without accounting for the fact that Labor returned to power in 1998 after the fairly brief interruption of Rob Borbidge’s Coalition government, which lasted only from February 1996 to June 1998 — such that Labor has been in power in the traditionally conservative state for all but 2½ out of the past 21 years.

With the LNP merger having largely resolved the issues that helped Labor defy gravity before now, the circumstances of the coming election are such that the proverbial drover’s dog could have led the LNP to a handsome parliamentary majority.

Certainly John-Paul Langbroek, shunted aside so Newman could direct the opposition from the parliamentary visitors’ gallery, would not have had any trouble in persuading the electorate that he offered the requisite safe pair of hands.


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125 thoughts on “It’s time in Qld, but maybe not for Newman

  1. Edward James

    What are you on about William Bowe ? This Queensland State election is an IQ test for taxpayers in Queensland who have been paying attention to the national political stage. Labor nationally is continuing to consume itself. Bob carr has been sucked up to provide something of substance for the voting public. We the peoples are long over due to plough in the dead wood politicians who have for years promised us everything and delivered almost nothing apart from higher interest rates on money which Labor has borrowed in our names. Edward James

  2. guytaur

    Katters entering the fray with real money is a game changer. All assumptions have been that the LNP has to win in the South East corner. With his disgraceful antigay advert. Katter may persuade some previously rusted on LNP voters to switch. Katter has wedged the LNP with it. Support homophobia and keep your base or condemn homophobia and lose your base.
    How big a swing remains to be seen. It shows however that yet again assumption about safe seats re made with real electoral peril.

  3. Edward James

    Ask Katters relative ?

  4. Coaltopia

    In the words of Radiohead: “When I go forwards you go backwards and somewhere we will meet”.

  5. David Allen

    I try not to do prophecy but it’s very, very interesting.

    Newman needs to provide some policy costings pretty swiftly I think. My wife and I will be posting our votes in 48 hours and, Campbrll, no costings – no votes!

  6. Peter Ormonde

    “….has as good a track record as any pollster in the game.”

    Now that needs a bit of fleshing out William. How good are they? How accurate? Any numbers on which to base this testimonial or are they all just shockers.

    Any suggestion as to how these market surveys are allocating preferences?

    And lastly: Would you be up to placing a few wagers at all? Individual seats or overall results.

  7. GeeWizz

    [“Newman needs to provide some policy costings pretty swiftly I think. My wife and I will be posting our votes in 48 hours and, Campbrll, no costings – no votes!”]

    Oh please you were never going to vote LNP, I bet you’ve been a Labor supporter from the day you were born.

    We already know what Anna Bligh is offering Queenslanders because we’ve had a taster. 20% increase in rego’s weeks after the last state election, scrapping of the fuel subsidy at the same time for a double blow on motorists, Billions of dollars of debt and a health system in crisis.

    The problem with Blights election campaign that we don’t know who we will get as leader if we vote LNP is that you DO KNOW who you will get if you vote Labor and thats Anna Blight, which is good enough reason to vote for anyone else.

    Can’t wait to see Labor and it’s hacks ramp up the desperation as the landslide win to LNP draws closer.

  8. guytaur


    Awwwww No Fair. How dare someone else use your tactics about a party behaviour changing a vote.

  9. guytaur


    Are you for Newman or are you for Katter?

  10. GeeWizz


    Are you for Newman or are you for Katter?”]

    Like the majority of Queenslanders I am for “anyone but Blight”

    Katter will be hard pressed to win any seats outside of North Queensland where his base is, but I live in Townsville so I may just vote for him as he might have a chance to pick up a couple of seats here.

    What I do know… despite all the spin from the Labor supporters is that no matter if it’s Katter or the LNP picking up seats… in the famous words of one Redhead Footy presenter, Labors GORRNEE.

  11. Coaltopia

    Ahh motorists, the reason Brisbane is in epic debt. The reason we have fail tunnels, air pollution, noise pollution, the ugly riverside expressway and hideous Herston overpasses, the billions wasted on fuel subsidies, failed flow control systems, overpriced and poor public transport… and of course, the reason my bus is always late.

  12. GeeWizz

    Coaltopia and the solution is?

    Maybe Bligh and Gillard can announce a $50 Billion Dollar monorail system…. they seem to love spending our money

  13. Peter Ormonde


    What’s this “our money” business? You trying to tell us you pay tax?

  14. guytaur


    You seem to not understand the article. Still maybe you gone Troppo up there in Townsville. It would explain the spelling.
    No one doubts that Labor is gone. What is amazing everyone is how Newman and company are doing their level best to lose the election. No Barry O Farrell style election campaign. Instead one that reminds me of Federal Labor and its 2010 campaign.

  15. Kevin

    I WAS rusted on Labor until about one month after the last election, the betrayal of what I thought was Labor values has left me looking to vote Green ( can’t stand Can Do and all his bull, I lived in Brisbane under his reign….. Show pony!)

    Something not mentioned is that we have Optional Prefermtial Voting in QLD so just vote 1 will be a large factor in the result.

  16. Coaltopia

    The legacy of 1950’s American city planning are hard to overcome. What’s known – e.g. by the principles of Jan Gehl – it that cities rejuvenate when you reduce private car transport. Brisbane has made good progress on improving cycling but it’s minuscule compared to the tunnel expense. Sunshine/Gold coasties are almost entirely car-dependant, unless I’m mistaken. Regional areas still require assistance as public transport is impractical, however the $2 billion the Feds give to foreign mining companies via the fuel tax credit is patent waste and could be used to improve our infrastructure.

    Queensland should never have subsidised fuel. The tunnels should’ve been cross-river rail. The airport already has a train, its frequency should’ve been increased. All major train routes to Ipswich, Robina and Caboolture should’ve had capacity increased. Large housing developments west of Brisbane like Springfield Lakes should’ve required rail investment/infrastructure upfront. T2 lanes should’ve been more widely used. The Go-Between bridge was unnecessary, though a much cheaper cycling/pedestrian bridge could’ve been built further west instead of the arguably unnecessary Kulripa bridge.

    I’m sure there’s other examples.

    All of these are “should ofs”, as now that Brisbane is in a Legacy Way of Debt to tunnels, it can’t afford a way out of its cartropolis.

  17. William Bowe

    Peter Ormonde, Galaxy has published election-eve opinion polls at 11 state and federal elections going back to 2004. Its mean absolute error (i.e. the average it has been off the mark in either direction) has been 1.3% for the Labor primary vote, 1.1% for the LNP, 1.3% for the Greens and 1.0% for the two-party preferred. At no election have any of these errors fallen outside the range of the 3% margin of error. Galaxy has shown a very slight tendency for its errors to lean in Labor’s favour, such that the mean error on 2PP has been 0.6% in Labor’s favour. If you don’t like their preference allocation method then you’re free to rate this as unknowable and go off the primary vote instead, but the evidence available provides no reason to suppose that a 2PP derived from the preference flows of the previous election will be any more wrong than the primary vote figures from which they are derived.

  18. Peter Ormonde


    I’m trying to find a link for the Galaxy report of its poll … doesn’t seem to be available via its website. Can you slip me a link.

    No wager then?

  19. Lord Barry Bonkton

    Kevin , after listening to truffie/Geewiz/S.b , I am with you Greens 1 ONLY. Our GBR is too important and after reading about China capping coal imports at Renew Economy , by 2015 and investing more in Solar and Wind. The two old parties are not looking far enough into the future and will Australia without other Industries and tourism will be dead after all the dredging and coal ships cruising through the GBR , at 1 every hour. It is a disaster waiting to happen. Fracking will long term stuff our water supply and farming land and we will be in deep shite. Clive and Gina will just buy another island to live on .

  20. guytaur

    Given policies of the major parties the whole Coal Seam Gas issue is going to develop interesting voter trends.
    This is a vote change issue. Coal Seam Gas as an issue is this decades Franklin Dam.

  21. mrsynik

    > should ofs

    Wouldn’t it be more correct to say “Should have’s” rather than “Should of’s” – or is the the banana-bender dialect at work again where the locals pronounce Nine & Fire as if they were pronouncing it in German?

  22. Lord Barry Bonkton

    Are the gremlins back ? keep getting 500 server error ?

  23. GeeWizz

    [“And lastly: Would you be up to placing a few wagers at all? Individual seats or overall results.”]

    Centrebets paying out $8.50 for a Labor win, so why don’t you put up or shut up?

  24. Peter Ormonde


    I only like to bet against people who make predictions. I don’t bet for the money. I bet for the humiliation of fools. Interested?

  25. Suzanne Blake

    There will be twists and turns in Queensland and indeed Ashgrove before Saturday week.

  26. Coaltopia

    That’s pure “dialecto” Mr Synik.

  27. GeeWizz

    [“There will be twists and turns in Queensland and indeed Ashgrove before Saturday week.”]

    Suzanne I am predicting a wipeout for Labor WORSE than NSW.

    QLD’ers don’t like getting beaten by the southern welshman

  28. botswana bob

    As a resident of Ashgrove, depicted as a “broadly green-left inner-urban seat” may I offer a few observations.
    First Greens do considerably better in the adjacent seat occupied by Deputy Premier Andrew Fraser than in Ashgrove and have an outside chance to win that seat.

    Second the ALP has run a crafty campaign in Ashgrove. The sitting ALP member is a local girl. Her campaign signs/leaflets do not mention ALP ties. She quit the ministry and devoted full time to campaigning. As leader, Newman has other demands on his time. Many voters–us included–have received phone calls from people who claim to be locals supporting the ALP member. These callers have been revealed to be union officers reading from a prepared script. And in a highly provincial electorate much is made of the fact than Newman doesn’t live here.

    Third the polls have been telephone polls and may under report the ALP/Greens support. Phone polls don’t pick up the young demographic who have mobiles not landlines. So the ALP/Greens support may be higher than reported.

    Should the Greens preference the ALPs Kate Jones its likely Newman is as finito as Benito.

    Overall the LNP–Pineapple Party–will get in. How long this uneasy marriage of Brisbane Liberals and rural Nationals last is another matter. Coal gas will be the first stress test-the Liberal element are all for it, the rural peasants hate it.

  29. William Bowe

    BB, the issue with landlines and the young vote is a bit more subtle than that. Phone pollsters target a quota of each age group, and keep phoning until they reach their quotas. It’s invariably the youngest age cohort which is harder to get hold of, so most of the last day of polling will be spent asking anyone who answers the phone if there is “anyone aged 18 to 24 in the household available”. The responses for each age cohort are then weighted to iron out any discrepancies between the numbers polled and their share of the population. So while there are issues with the kind of voter who doesn’t have a landline being excluded from the survey, the issue is more complex than a simple under-representation of young people.

  30. John Kotsopoulos

    geewiz who said you had a right to a non means tested Govt subsidy on petrol? Clearly you believe in magic pudding economics with lower taxes and charges but better roads and services . Get real.

  31. Edward James

    Posted Monday, 12 March 2012 at 9:25 pm | Permalink
    Are the gremlins back ? keep getting 500 server error ?
    Me too, on a Mac. around six PM Sunday night.
    I just had to walk away{;-( Edward James

  32. David Allen

    “Oh please you were never going to vote LNP, I bet you’ve been a Labor supporter from the day you were born”

    You know nothing about me. I’ve voted Tory (UK, NZ & Oz) in 3 countries and for Joh B.P.

    “20% increase in rego’s weeks after the last state election”

    My rego over the last 6 years, same vehicle inc. 3rd Party with on time payment discount.

    2007 – $389.00
    2008 – $371.60
    2009 – $408.30
    2010 – $466.80
    2011 – $436.35
    2012 – $440.80

    I concede it had a blip in 2010 but, in truth, it has risen 13% over the 6 years. Not even CPI.

    Bl**dy facts, eh?

  33. Suzanne Blake

    @ botswana bob

    Same in NSW in 2010, Labor either removed ALP logo, or made it so small, you needed to be under 25 to see it.

    The banners said

    David Mehan working for The Entrance

    He was a new candidate, the previous ALP one resigned / retired

  34. Suzanne Blake

    @ GeeWizz

    The fact that Bligh injected dishonest Gillard into the campaign launch, may indeed be a twist and turn, that will help the other side.

  35. David Allen


    I’ve been holding my tongue…

    “Should of” should be “Should have”
    “Could of” should be “Could have”
    “Would of” should be “Would have”

    The Concise Oxford says
    USAGE (of ‘have’)
    Be careful not to write the word of when you mean have or ‘ve: I could’ve told you that not I could of told you that. The mistake arises from the fact that the pronunciation of have in unstressed contexts is the same as that of of, and the two words are confused when writing them down.

    A greater familiarity with books would tend to negate the propensity to commit these errors

  36. Gavin Moodie

    I agree with Guytaur

    The leader of a new government normally has personal authority within their party from winning the election, which they can use to discipline their party. If Newman doesn’t win Ashgrove not only will there be a leadership contest within the LNP between former Liberals and former Nationals, the new leader won’t have much personal authority. This may result in indisciplined government and the risk of another brief single term.

  37. Karen

    I cannot understand why the Queenslanders don’t vote for the Greens who will be the only party that will stop their State from turning into one big unregulated, poisoned Gasland. What is happening in Queensland is absolutely atrocious – even Clive Palmer can’t bear CSG, now that’s saying something for a big miner.

  38. Peter Ormonde


    I suspect that the reason Clive Palmer is hostile to CSG is that he’s not making a quid out of it – yet. Same as the parrot.

    Ticks have no values beyond their next feed.

  39. guytaur


    When it comes to voting people stay with what they know. This means it can take decades for a new party to build a voter base. The Greens are still in the process of doing so.
    My mention of the Franklin River, No Dams campaign is the only pt comparison. This is why the Green ote is particularly strong in Tasmania. Queensland and any other state suffering Coal Seam Gas is going to suffer such division as the elites push against the National and peoples interest in their rush to proit. The danger to the Great Barrier Reef will draw in an international “celebrity” to mobilize world opinion as David Bellamy did for the Franklin Campaign.
    This will make Labor far more willing to act at the Federal level.
    Even in this election campaign there will be an increase.
    Voters see a passionate Alan Jones of radio fame 100% on the side of Greens. That alone is a vote changer.
    So yes the Green vote will increase. It will just be incremental though.
    This might change if a Coal Seam Zgas project commences in the Ashgrove electorate.

  40. GeeWizz

    [“geewiz who said you had a right to a non means tested Govt subsidy on petrol? Clearly you believe in magic pudding economics with lower taxes and charges but better roads and services . Get real.”]


    The fuel subsidy in QLD is because QLD is a very uncentralised state population wise, at least compared to other states. We have broad populations centres scattered all the way up the coast between Cairns all the way down to the Gold Coast and a large population centre out west in Mt Isa.

    But to your question, the government doesn’t actually give QLD’ers anything all they are doing is reducing the tax burden by our federal government whom has a duel levy of around 40 cents a litre.

    With regards to the magic pudding economy, there is an incredible amount of waste in governments that needs to go. Better roads and services sounds like a good idea but unfortunately it’s all overwhelmed by huge waste, feel good pet projects no one cares about and unionised government departments taking the taxpayer for a ride.

    If I had my way I’d sack the entire public service and offer all the jobs back only on a pay to performance basis.

  41. Peter Ormonde


    The Greens also face a bit of an obstacle in Queensland with the optional preferential system … tends to emphasise the tweedle dums and tweedle dees I suspect. Having to actually mark the Greens box on a ballot paper – even down the list – presents them as a legitimate player in the process. A stupid undemocratic system that favours the old order. Katter will have the same problem. The hat and the controversy helps.

  42. Peter Ormonde


    They tax duelling in Queensland!!! This is an outrageous impost on evolution.

  43. Suzanne Blake

    @ Geewizz

    “If I had my way I’d sack the entire public service and offer all the jobs back only on a pay to performance basis”

    You are a genius. Same for school teachers as well. They academically improve their students or they look for another career, special exemption for special needs teachers. Kids that want to much up at School, get shifted to a special needs class or school. or program.

    Get rid of duplication in state / federal governments, and run like a lean, efficient productive operation. Creat new jobs in ‘new economy’ , intense food production, increasing arable lands etc.

  44. GeeWizz

    [“My rego over the last 6 years, same vehicle inc. 3rd Party with on time payment discount.

    2007 – $389.00
    2008 – $371.60
    2009 – $408.30
    2010 – $466.80
    2011 – $436.35
    2012 – $440.80”]

    Utter utter rubbish, proven to be completely rubbish for anyone who bothers to check please go to the QLD Transport website.

    A 4 cylinder, personal use, car rego with the cheapest CTP provider available is currently $638.90 a Year. Bit far off this guys numbers. Rego has risen… without fail, year on year.

    So what are we to assume you are driving exactly mate, a steam powered unicycle?

  45. guytaur


    Yes. Katter is following the “One Nation” fear and loathing strategy. He has just picked gays instead of asians as the bogeyman.

    Looking at that One Nation success is I think a reason for a slim chance of Labor retaining government. Katter knows from bitter personal experience of being in the tent and outside it with a hung parliament. if this slim chance does happen he knows he would be more influential with Labor than with LNP. We know Katter can come to the centre when it is interest to do so.

    That slim chance gets greater as the Newman campaign continues its trainwreck.

  46. GeeWizz


    you are living in lala land if you think it’s going to be a hung parliament. Labor will have enough members to fill a telephone booth after this election. I have to give you points though for your optimism, I guess the septic tank is always half full down there at Labor HQ.

  47. guytaur


    Remember polls are a snapshot of the past. Numbers in Parliament change as seats do. LNP has paid lip service to FNQ.
    Katter is going to make them pay the price. That and uncertainty who will win Ashgrove is slowing the juggernaut.
    Labor will not win. What might happen though is the slim chance outcome. Note I said slim. I did not say will.
    We now know the LNP has lost some lustre and seats maybe includung Ashgrove due to the campaign trainwreck.
    Again for your eduction. LNP. Has what NSW Coalition did not. Leader not in Parliament. Uncertainty over if that leader will be in Parliament. (Labor attaking on this aspect). A new party wedging the voting base.

  48. David Allen


    “The Greens also face a bit of an obstacle in Queensland with the optional preferential system … tends to emphasise the tweedle dums and tweedle dees I suspect. Having to actually mark the Greens box on a ballot paper – even down the list – presents them as a legitimate player in the process. A stupid undemocratic system that favours the old order.”

    Unusually, I think you’re completely wrong on this.

    Under the optional system, I can, and will, vote 1 – Greens. My preferences will not flow.

    Under the compulsory system, even if I choose every minor party and independent first my preference, almost certainly, will aggregate to one of the majors. Of course, this, they will say, adds to their ‘mandate’.

  49. David Allen


    “So what are we to assume you are driving exactly mate, a steam powered unicycle?”

    If you must assume, try assuming that I benefit from a pensioner discount. Ever heard of Ockham’s Razor?

    The figures quoted are straight from my accounts and it’s a 97 ford Laser 4 cylinder.

    You should be the lasdt person to accuse anyone of talking rubbish, with possibly a frew exceptions

  50. Peter Ormonde


    You’re right of course – there will be sensible informed people who will choose to do a single greens vote. And I hope they do very well.

    It’s just that for those who regard voting as an unwarranted intrusion by guvvermint – who vote against rather than vote for – who use their votes to show how “unhappy” they are – the optional preference system makes it a bit harder to get onto the main table for smaller parties over a decade or so of ballots I suspect.

    When people – thinking people – are required to consider their preferences they tend to pay some attention to what else is on offer.

    Only a hunch, mind you. None of these political scientists actually study such fine details of our voting system. Too interested in who wins to look at such trivia. A science of the bleeding obvious.

  51. Syd Walker

    We have a choice between one-scandal-a-day-and-screw-due-process Newman, or the big-hats-where-rational-thought-should-be Katter Party – or a Labor Government that, for all its deficiencies and for all my policy disagreements with it, looks remarkably sane by comparison.

    Even at this late stage, if Labor came good on Coal Seam Gas it could be game-changer.

    Of course there’s also The Greens. As it’s a State election, the Greens will get my first preference. But I’ll be sure my preference flows to Labor. Anything else is a punt into the unknown.

    In FNQ, both the LNP and Katterites want move-along powers for fruit bats found in inhabited areas; they talk of bombing these hapless creatures with smoke bombs from helicopters. Anna Bligh, at least, has the smarts to take scientific advice and points out that bats have wings.

    It’s a small example, but gives some idea of the choice Queenslanders actually face. Two flavours of fruitcake versus the bread to which we’re grown accustomed. I’ll stick with bread.

  52. guytaur

    @Syd Walker

    I agree with you on Coal Seam Gas change. It might even lead to the bizarre sight of Alan Jones doing advertisements for the Labor party.

  53. David Allen


    And here’s a few more for you, going to the beginning of my archives.

    2003 – $431.10
    2004 – $446.50
    2005 – $413.55
    2006 – $395.30

    Actual increase to 2012 is only 2.25% over the 10 years.

    You have a small business so you should be able to pull 10 years’ records up quicktime. We’ve had a rotten Labor government in Qld all that time so I’m sure you wouldn’t have been able to afford to change your vehicle. How about you post your actuals so we can verify?

  54. David Allen

    Incidentally, GeeWizz, anyone but a gormless twit would have paused to reflect on the fact that the degree of exactitude I provided in the figures might attest to their veracilty

  55. Peter Ormonde


    Actuals?? Records? Tax???? Rego? Whoa. If you don’t write it down they can’t get ya.

    I don’t think Troofie would have ever read the Magic Pud’n… a disturbingly astute economic text for Australia isn’t it?

  56. GeeWizz

    It appears the Crikey servers have been upgraded from a 386/20Mhz Computer to a 486/66Mhz Computer.

    Anyways Petesy, I do pay as little tax as possible, what is your point? It’s my money not the governments

  57. David Allen

    “Actuals?? Records? Tax???? Rego? Whoa.”

    Peter, no match for

    Assertions, assumptions, perceptions, ‘commonsence’ and the infallibility of soothsayers.

  58. GeeWizz

    Now lookie here… The lefties ABC doing their bidding again:
    www .brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/abc-presenter-stood-down-for-voicing-katter-ad-20120313-1uxji.html

    When was the last time someone was sacked for simply doing the voice over work?

  59. guytaur


    The ABC still does not do adverts. That is why suspenion and possible sacking.

    Abbott has not changes that yet.

  60. GeeWizz

    [“The ABC still does not do adverts. That is why suspenion and possible sacking. “]

    Guytaur they didn’t pay the ABC, they paid this woman to do this voice over in her own time.

    How many other ABC presenters have done voice over work and have been sacked for it?

    Lefties think tolerance is a one way street where everyone has to tolerate leftwing values and ideals. It’s actually a 2 way street, and it’s about time they recognise it.

  61. Suzanne Blake

    @ GeeWizz

    Gee Wizz, the extreme Greens and gays there will have her papers stamped for good – never to return.

    101 Restraint of Trade – she will win hands down in IRC and ABC will be forced into re-instatement and back pay. Eespecially as she is reported only part time at ABC.

  62. Filth Dimension

    @ Geewizz, you are way off topic for this thread. Take your astroturfing ass hat elsewhere. If these other issues bother so much start your own blog/website/newspaper. Guytaur please don’t lead him on.

  63. Suzanne Blake

    @ GeeWizz

    Exactly “Anyways Petesy, I do pay as little tax as possible, what is your point? It’s my money not the governments”

    As one famous Australian said…..”Pay your tax, don’t tip them”

  64. Suzanne Blake

    @ David Allen

    They are very reasonable rego increases.

    Try doing the same analysis on Australia Post. The old 55c stamp price does not move too much.

    But…..take a look at BUSINESS POST over the counter parcels, pre-paid satchels. The latter have gone up 35% since start of 2009. The latest increase was around 8.9% this month. I complained at local post office and called their customer helpline and they read from a prepared spin sheet. They blamed fuel prices, need to be compatitive and extra delivery points / suburbs. I explained to them that the price of diesel fuel in Jan 2006 and the price today is the SAME, I asked about the extra delivery points and they did not know ( I can only assume its extra suburbs in the urban sprawl, hardly a big factor) and as to competitive that was way above their pay grade (The cost of a courier now is also the same as parcel post – that is anti competitive and gouging small business)

    Its all about giving Swan a HIGHER dividend from Australia Post to tip money in his budget black void. That is why he does not attack the 55c stamp or the media will be all over it. Sneaky Swan.

    He hits small business instead.

  65. guytaur


    See what Filth said. When you do start that blog try and have some connection to reality.


    Sorry the Geewizz comment made it appear it was on the ABC. A black and white situation. About the level of Geewizz understanding. It is a sign Geewizz going off topic like that some understandingof how bad a campaign the LNP has run is sinking in.

  66. GeeWizz

    Filth completely ontopic as this is the QLD State Election thread, aka Bob Katter Party.

    Perhaps you thought this would just be another Labor love-in.

    [“101 Restraint of Trade – she will win hands down in IRC and ABC will be forced into re-instatement and back pay. Eespecially as she is reported only part time at ABC.”]

    I can see another FWA go-slow in the works…

  67. guytaur


    Offtopic. ABC staffing issues in Western Australia have no bearing on Qld Election.

  68. guytaur


    Given the bad campaigning I can see the LNP squandering its lead to win only by one or two seats.
    With no Newman as premier the infighting could see a Labor return real quick.

  69. GeeWizz

    The LNP is doing a fantastic job at campaigning and will look to be getting around 60% of the TPP vote.

    Newman according to the betting market will sh1t it in to ashgrove with an easy win.

  70. guytaur


    I see you quoting bettingodds. Not polls. Do not like the poll results. As for campaigning this LNP campaign is akin to Gillard’s “Real Julia” campaign.
    To see a good one try any run by Bob Carr as Premier and that of Zbarry O Farrell. There is the first coyple of campaigns by mr Beatty. Ll good campaigns. John Howard an Bob Hawke join the lit.
    So far Gillard nd Newman do not.

  71. GeeWizz


    Anna Blights entire election campaign is based on defamatory comments she made in QLD Parliament under parliamentry priveledge like the gutless wonder she is. I don’t actually see any Labor policies or how they have changed their ways other than copying LNP policies such as the Rego freeze… which lets remind the readers Labor promptly jacked up after the last state election.

    Cambell Newman just needs to sit back and ride the wave now…

  72. David Allen


    I think it’s been pointed out before to you that Australia Post have plenty of competition on their parcel services. Even here in small town Qld I get parcels delivered by a number of carriers.

    The market at work I guess.

    They have a virtual monopoly on letter post but as you acknowledge prices are reasonable.

  73. Peter Ormonde

    OOOH YES … gutless, defamatory comments made under parliamentary “priveledge” … that’d be her all over. I wonder what her real name is?

    “Lets” all sit back and watch “Cambell” Newman ride that wave…

    Grunt, snork, snarfle

  74. guytaur

    I personally think Cambell has as John Howard put it “no ticker”.
    A man who cannot challenge to get a safe seat. Thus putting doubt in the mind of some if not all voters.
    John Howard, Paul Keating, kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard , Brendan Nelson and lmost all other party leaders have done so.
    Not Mr Cambell. His party is paying the price.

  75. Suzanne Blake

    @ David Allen

    The point is that Australia Post have moved their prices up to just below couriers. Its now less than a dollar in it.

    They have done this to gouge. There is no other justification for the 30 – 40% ibcreases in the last 3 years. Its 101 gouging to pay more to incompetent Swan.

  76. GeeWizz

    [“Julia Gillard”]

    LOL…. Just LOL

  77. Plane

    Don’t discount the swings and roundabouts of Queensland regional politics in this State election. LNP should win, but there could be a few surprises more than in Ashgrove

  78. GeeWizz

    So Anna Blight has dropped her threats on Cambell Newman to refer him to the CMC regarding developer contracts.

    I do hope that Cambell takes her to the cleaners with a defamation case after the election.

    BTW, hows that 3+ Year investigation by FWA into Craig Thomson going?

  79. Peter Ormonde

    So Troofie/Wizz etc

    You don’t come from Queensland either eh?

    What a strange little creature.

  80. GeeWizz


    I’m from Townsville which at last check was in Queensland.

    I will be voting Bob Katter’s Party, though LNP will probably win the seats around here

  81. Suzanne Blake

    @ Geewizz

    Does that mean Comrade Ormonde and yourself are POLLS apart!!!

  82. Filth Dimension

    I see the SB /Geewizz love in is well and truly underway.

    Why the constant absence of silent P’s in spelling peoples names? Is the tinfoil picking up interference.

  83. Peter Ormonde


    Actually I should’ve twigged earlier.

    The spelling, grammar and – or lack of it – should have given it away.

    Successive Queensland Governments have been quite ambivalent about the whole idea of skoolin and whether teachin anyfink uvver than milkin’ and trackter drivin is a good idea.

    In fact the hole noshun of ideas is a bit dodgy as well. And if you ave skools next fing you’ve got teechers and the ole plaice starts fillin up with suthern innerlektewals with fansy coffee drinkin ways and books.

    One of the first things to be slashed from the Queensland curriculum in the 1950s was irony, soon to be followed by spelling and writing in words. Ill-equipped to detect sarcasm, the Bligh Guvvermint launched “Kweansland -the smart state” . God how we laughed.

    Tennyrate as Everyone Noes you don’t need to go to skool or lern nuffin to be smart. Joh and Russ Hinze were smart and they didn’t know nuffink. Honest.

    Now it’s got me finking dat Suzanne Bleak is also a prodduct of the Kweansland edderkashun cistern.

    Kweansland – bootiful one day … really noyce the nexed.

  84. SBH

    wizzer “If I had my way I’d sack the entire public service and offer all the jobs back only on a pay to performance basis.”

    all been on performance pay since about 1991, not that history or the facts should ruin a nasty right wing attack on public servants

  85. Suzanne Blake

    @ Comrade Peter Ormonde

    Really, you should have your own comedy show, be a Chaser cast member. Work for the ABC, if you don’t already.

    You have the skills. Extreme Left, proven extreme left, funny, Communist links, support Gillard no matter what.

  86. Peter Ormonde


    I’m outraged that you could suggest I put myself at the services of the ABC. I’m far far too left-wing for that.

    The ABC showed their true colours when they knocked off Miss Pat and Mr Squiggle. Not to mention putting The Goons on at 5 am on Radio National.

    Typical wishy-washy social democrats and extreme greens. They’ll get theirs. We will not forget.

  87. Suzanne Blake

    @ Peter Ormonde

    I am sorry you miss Mr Squiggle and Miss Pat. Mr Squiggle died a few years ago.

    You may have missed the ABC story. He was almost a neighbour of Kerry O’Brien (..what not Red Kerry) living in ….you won’t believe it the electorate of the guy that wears red speedo’s and rides bikes and says no!!

  88. GeeWizz

    [“The ABC showed their true colours when they knocked off Miss Pat and Mr Squiggle. Not to mention putting The Goons on at 5 am on Radio National. “]

    Christ Mr Squiggle had been doing his show non-stop for 40 Years(seriously), he was well deserving of his retirement I think.

  89. Peter Ormonde

    And you call yourself a conservative???! You’re just greedy.

    Why her majesty our very own Queen – after whom what your own state is called of – is just getting into her stride at 50 years of pulling some sort of gig involving awful frumpy hats and sitting on something unspeakable.

    Are you saying she should be put out to grass like some sort of broken down mule?

    Youse Queanslanders are no respextors of our traditions at all. Startin wiff spellin.

    But deposing the Squigg and Blackboard was a step too far on the road to post-modernist macchiatoism. And I’m holding you responsible Kerry O’Brien.

  90. GeeWizz

    An old communist like you Peter would be delighted to hear that the coalition will be blocking a Labor tax cut in the corporations tax with the greens, funded by the mining tax.

    As I have stated, most small business don’t actually pay the corporations tax… it’s in fact big companies that pay corporations tax… companies like BHP, Rio Tinto, etc etc.

    It’s yet more evidence that Labor couldn’t care less about small businesses like mine. How bout a round of tax cuts instead Dillard?

  91. GeeWizz

    Income tax cuts I mean

  92. guytaur


    I do not know about tax policies at state level.
    However as I suspect you are talking Federal. The only ones voting against cuts for small business are the Coalition.
    This is a fact o matter what spin Abbott puts on it.

    Do get your facts right.

  93. my say

    Gee, from a southern point of view, stilldont understand queensland, lived there once, gee i am glad i lef.

    I hope labor win, anna bligh comes across as a very good decent person, during YOUR floods, greatly admired in tbe south, then on top of that u got the levy, suppose its still running curtitsy of FEDERAL LABOR.

    O well its like daylight saving being good , why dont qlders get that also

  94. Peter Ormonde

    Now now now Troofie,

    Now you know what old comms think? Like most things I’d reckon you don’t know anything at all about what I think. You just make it up. But it’s actually much much worse than you can imagine.

    I actually quite like the idea of giving some businesses tax cuts – but not silly little tin shed businesses that don’t do anything remotely useful.

    See I’d have real issues with giving an astroturfer like yourself a tax cut when rather than being out in the shed actually working you are spending your days on here whingeing about how hard life is and how awful the guvvermint is and making stuff up to excuse your abysmal failure in business.

    But if you were actually out and about doing something that society actually needed I reckon a tax cut would be most acceptable… even a good thing. But then if you were doing something useful – making something people needed – you would be doing OK and would be far too busy to be whining on here all day and night. You’d be too busy earning an income to worry about tax.

    There’s only a few reasons why small businesses stay small Troofie – and it’s not tax – it’s mostly due to a lack of capital, a bad idea that has too small a market or by far the dominant reason – laziness and a sense of frustrated entitlement … that the world owes them a living … that they deserve “special treatment”.

    You don’t make those “roof handles” I see on TV do you? The one’s that are purportedly camel proof.

    You should start to understand that your personal circumstances are not a solid basis for making economic decisions. Otherwise the sole purpose of governments would be to cater to your greed and sense of entitlement. And there wouldn’t be enough cash in the country to be meeting those expectations would there? Nothing will make you happy.

  95. guytaur


    This latest whining of the Gee is to aoid admitting small business tax cuts due to the Greens.
    First Alan Jones joins the Greens protests on Coal Seam Gas. Then reeling from the shock he finds out the Greens tell Labor only small business tax cuts are going through.
    Suddenly its a lot harder to demonise the Greens as being extreme.

  96. Peter Ormonde


    You mean the Greens are planning to give tax cuts to the mob who make those roof handle things? Strewth!

    Before we know it the rolling acres of our rooftops will be crawling with camels. Why make life easier for them?

  97. guytaur


    The Greens prefer the ood small business like some tourism operators get a tax cut than Clive Palmer, BHP, and the Big Four Banks. They are not going to punish the good just to deny the rooftop camel brigade types. Their business will fail anyway.

    Interesting to see how the Gee and Ms Bleak defend their idol Mr Abbott denying both small business and corporations tax cuts. Talk about attacking your base.

  98. David Allen


    “Try doing the same analysis on Australia Post”

    OK, I can’t do the same analysis as I don’t have the historical information. However, I do have a strong recollection that 3Kg Australia Post overnight prepaid satchels were $7.50 inj the mid nineties. There was no GST then so for comparison purposes we need to add 10% to cover John Howard’s ‘Great Big Old Tax’ = $8.25.

    OK, $8.25 in, say, 1995 Price now (Parcel Post Plus) $11.40 bought singly and as low as $10.26 for 100 or more. Sticking with the single rate % increase 1995 – 2012 = 30% over 17 years = an average annual increase of 1.76% – well under CPI.

    I’ll continue in another post as if too long will go to moderation?

  99. David Allen


    My last went to moderation anyway…. Hopefully it will come out soon.

    I’ve now discovered ‘Parcel post plus’ is not ‘Express Post’ Express Satchel is $12.55 = 52% increase over 17 years = 3% pa. Average annual CPI increase over the period about 2.75%. Doesn’t look like much of a rip off to me particularly when we take into account improved tracking Etc.

    I have also examined comparative postal rates for 3Kg parcel Qld country postcode to 2000

    Australia Post
    Regular Parcel – $16.25
    Parcel Post Plus Satchel – $11.40
    Express Post Satchel – $12.55
    Express Post Platinum – $40.60

    AAE Express Saver ATL – $16.23
    AAE Express Saver – $23.93
    AAE Express Premium ATL – $33.51
    AAE Express Premium – $39.01
    TNT Road Express – $59.60
    TNT Overnight – $72.51

    Once again Suzanne, your assertions, when tested against the facts, prove unsustainable. Feel free to provide data to prove otherwise.

    I note that there is a pattern extant amongst the extreme right commentators here. Don’t check facts, make assertions, have them proven wrong, change the subject.

  100. Suzanne Blake

    @ David Allen

    I was Talking Parcel Post satchels, so to you use analysis

    Parcel Post Plus Satchel – $11.40 .

    That is the 3kg one, look also at the 500g one that is now $7.20.

    At the start of 2009, the price was 5.20 (500g) and $8.60 (3kg),

    The 3kg one has gone up 32.56%
    The 500g one has gone up 38.46%

    Price of diesel is the same today as it was in Jan 2006 (source NRMA)

    AAE have a flat rate service that is around $9.54 for a 3kg overnight prepaid. This is a contracted rate for small business, so even if you buy the Australia Post product in bulk (ie 100 or more prepaid satchels) their price is $10.26 each (3kg), so somehow Australia Post have gouged so much, they are uncometitive. With AAE they collect from you, nno need to travel to a red post box or the post office and they have tracking.

    Regular Parcels your $16.25 example have gone up significantly as well. I dont have the figures, as its weight, cubic and distance related, but they are spiking as well. Even intrastate (metro – metro) parcel rates are now $8.65, they have gone up high teens in the last couple of years.

  101. GeeWizz

    [“Gee, from a southern point of view, stilldont understand queensland, lived there once, gee i am glad i lef.”]

    The nicest people in Australia live in QLD(in my view anyways).

    But the thing about QLD’ers is we don’t like Bullsh1t and we call a spade a spade. Some would consider that backwards, but it’s actually quite a good attribute to have.

    And it seems mexicans agree as you are migrating up here at an alarming pace.

  102. Peter Ormonde

    Aw cut it out Troofie….

    Don’t like bullshit? A spade a spade? Mate you’d be calling a spade a silk purse …

    Seriously, I’m sure there are a lot of good, kind-hearted and gentle folks up there – like most Australians. Then there’s you. Full of bullshit – chockers with it – full of self pity, accusations and demonstrating your disappointment, catwalking your ignorance … making it your whole life. Wasting all that lovely country sitting inside at a screen spewing out a stream of greedy selfish crap…

    Get up off your arse and go fishing – do something useful and give this awful rubbish away.

  103. GeeWizz

    God the crikey servers are slow today, so much for the upgrade.

    Possibly the slowest servers in Australia

  104. Peter Ormonde

    It’s all the dreary sludge they have to carry. You and Suz Bleak keep gumming them up.

  105. Suzanne Blake

    @ GeeWizz

    I think Fair Work Australia were recently upgraded by the Minister to slower servers the amazing 286, with punched card reader. He has promised them the
    21 st century upgrade will be live a few minutes before after an election is called.

  106. Filth Dimension

    @ Geewizz

    […. (in my view anyways)]

    You should finish every post with this.

  107. GeeWizz


    Craig “Tommo” Thomson taking a sickie off today because he has complained of stomach pains.

    Can’t believe the Coalition gave this guy a pair while he was away. Our forefathers would be spinning in their graves if they knew our politicians simply give a free vote to the other side because they couldn’t be bothered showing up to vote.

    It’s undemocratic… and probably a violation of the constitution as well. Everyone must vote… every time.

  108. GeeWizz

    www .smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/fair-work-to-take-health-union-officials-to-court-20120314-1v27x.html

    Looksie what we got here…. no wonder Craig Thomson has been admitted to hospital

  109. Suzanne Blake

    @ Geewizz

    Stomach cramps!! – I wonder if the patient will need to keep one eye open for HSU members or will get flowers?

  110. Suzanne Blake

    @ GeeWizz

    A catheter will alleviate any urinary tract infection if those complications arise during the night. Thats one of the issues with morphine is it can cause those issues.

  111. Suzanne Blake

    @ GeeWizz

    I am sorry it was not his backside. He could have alleged assault by someone’s boot and we could have had another vacancy in the lower house and get the election we really need

  112. GeeWizz

    I’m putting my bets down on stress-induced pancreatitis.

    Mark Latham had it after the 2004 election disaster. Rudd had it after he was rolled by Dillard.

    This bloke has it on hearing last night that FWA Go-Incredibly-Slow had finally come to an end and names will be released to the Australian Senate.

  113. David Allen

    SB, GW

    As I said, “Don’t check facts, make assertions, have them proven wrong, change the subject.” And should add, constantly wander off topic.

    GW’s ignorance of parliamentary practise is astonishing but hardly surprising.

    1 post re postage charges still in moderation a day later. Hopefully Crikey’s troubles are sorted now.

  114. Suzanne Blake

    @ David Allen

    My detailed response to you at 10am or so yesterday is also in moderation

  115. Edward James

    What with time spent unable to access Crikey.com and moderation times so long the string has moved on or died off, and been superseeded by somthing more curent. What is going on? I changed from Apple to Acer thinking it may be some compatibility problem on my end. Edward James

  116. Suzanne Blake

    @ Edward James

    Don’t worry Edward, Fair Work is investigating

  117. Edward James

    @ Suzanne Blake {:-( not happy

  118. Suzanne Blake

    @ David Allen.

    I have detailed records going back to 2008.

    The 3kg one has gone up 32.56% since start of 2009
    The 500g one has gone up 38.46% since start of 2009

    If you are indeed right and the 3kg bag was $7.50 in the mid 90’s and $8.25 after the GST in 2000. ……it has certainly gone wild in price increases since Swan was getting a dividend.

    Give me another reason?

    The letter rate is 55c now, and was 45c in 2000, no where need the increases.

    They are gouging the “hidden” items, business postage, parcels, PO box rates etc.

    Why – to pay Swan more

  119. Peter Ormonde

    Not really Ms Bleak…

    Wayne Swan doesn’t own Australia Post. We do. And I reckon they should charge what the market will bear.

    Australia Post is not a charity Ms Bleak – it is a business – and as you keep reminding us – that is something you claim to know something about. It should make a profit – a decent ROI. Or do you think your ebay business should be feeding from the public teat?

    If you don’t like Australia Post – go elsewhere – or as you keep suggesting to critics of the mainstream media – set yourself up a courier company.

  120. Suzanne Blake

    @ Peter Ormonde

    Australia Post is wholly Government owned, they appoint the Board, like they do with the ABC.

    Australia Post pay a dividend to The Federal Government.

    As a communist een you would understand this?

  121. David Allen


    I guess you know what you think you know. Peter Ormonde summed it up pretty well and, frankly, your positioning on government finances appears to be quite inconsistant.

    I commend the Australia Post 2011 annual report which you can find here:

    Picked this up: “Australia Post is subject to all taxes and pays dividends to the Commonwealth Government. In 2001-02, almost $292 million was provided for or paid to the government by way of dividends. This comprised of the payment of an interim dividend of $83 million and a $90 million ‘special’ dividend in April 2002, with
    further dividends of $119 million ($27 million as a ‘special’ dividend) being provided for”. That’s the Howard/Costello era

    From the aforementioned annual report:”At the half-year, the corporation declared an interim dividend of $79.1 million, based on full-year profi t expectations and distribution of 75 per cent of after-tax profit for the period. This was paid to our shareholder in April 2010. Due to the significant restructuring provisions
    made in the final statutory accounts, dividends payable from the 2009–10 result are to remain at $79.1 million. Consequently, the dividend payout ratio for the year is now approximately 97 per cent of the corporation’s after-tax profit.”. Mmm.

    So, $292 Million to Costello, $79.1 to Swan. Doesn’t seem to support your contention,does it?

    Suzanne, I have no great interest in this subject so will not be pursuing it further.

  122. GeeWizz


    The FWA Go-Extremely-Slow looks to be continuing.

    The FWA investigation has only finished for some lolwly figures in the HSU. The investigation into the top end including one Craig Thomson is yet to be “completed”(yeah right) and FWA says it will probably be mid-year before it’s concluded. Even then they say the public won’t be told what the results are.

    Is this the biggest Go-Slow in Australian history?

  123. Edward James

    Anyone else having problems accessing Crikey?

  124. Suzanne Blake

    I told the lefties 7 – 8 months ago that the Wivenhoe Dam mismanagement would blow up in Bligh’s face and it has. All they could say, was that I was wrong and where was the proof.

    Its was a coverup from Day 1 – typical ALP spin / smoke screen. Glad its out in the open now.

  125. Suzanne Blake

    It is interesting that Labor rush Bob Hawke in from his Sydney harbourside mansion to help out Anna Bligh. Today they are rushing deposed Kevin Rudd in.

    Dishonest Gillard not seen. Can’t recall the last time a Prime Minister was not seen during a State election, especially one that is of the same party as the curremt State one.

    Just goes to show Labor knows Gillard is toxic. The only time she was seem was at Bligh’s launch, in lw key role.

    I guess if there is a landslide, the spin doctors will have the Talking Point’s sheets saying its State issues, been there a long time, very hard to stay in power that long….tick the box on spin excuses

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