The last bi-monthly Newspoll survey of state voting intention caused a brief frisson in showing the Coalition’s two-party lead at just 51-49, which in defiance of all conventional wisdom about first-term honeymoons was a weaker result than it achieved at its November 2010 election win. The latest result confirms suspicions that the result may have been slightly roguish, but it equally confirms that the government is not travelling as well as can be anticipated given its youth. The Coalition’s two-party lead is at 53-47, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition (up two) and 33 per cent for Labor (down one). There’s an even worse sting in the tail for Labor leader Daniel Andrews, whose is down seven points on approval to a disastrous 23 per cent and up four on disapproval to 36 per cent (the non-recognition factor evidently remaining very high). The preferred premier rating is nonetheless little changed, Baillieu’s lead down from 53-18 to 51-19, which would have both sides wondering how things might be if Labor found a more popular leader. Personal ratings for Baillieu still to come (numbers as always from GhostWhoVotes).

UPDATE: Full tables from Ghost Who Votes. Over three bi-monthly polls, Baillieu’s net approval rating has gone from plus 23 to plus three. Since the last poll, his approval is down eight to 41 per cent and his disapproval up five to 38 per cent.