What a difference five years makes. For the first half of 2007 the federal government was well behind in the opinion polls -- much further than the Gillard government is now. Yet none of the media commentary took its defeat as a foregone conclusion. It was treated as very much a going concern, albeit one that was facing a difficult task.

As late as July 8 that year I was able to tell readers that "I don't know any commentator who says 'it's all over' at this point. Some might think that, but it's certainly not a widely expressed opinion."