Feb 20, 2012

Poll Bludger: Qld Labor staring down the barrel of 10% swing

It's been a long time since an Australian election offered so many diverting novelties as the one now officially under way in Queensland.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

It’s been a long time since an Australian election offered so many diverting novelties as the one now officially under way in Queensland: an unofficial opposition leader attempting to seize the premiership from outside parliament, an effective eight-week campaign, and another minor party insurgency in the regions.


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15 thoughts on “Poll Bludger: Qld Labor staring down the barrel of 10% swing

  1. botswana bob

    Question for Poll Bludger,
    Both polls are phone polling. Increasingly people–especially the youth demographic–don’t have landlines but only mobiles. Does not this introduce a bias into the polling methodology? Someone in Adelaide acquires a mobile number and shifts to Queensland. Are they excluded from the poll. More to the point is there a systematic way of building a mobile phone data base AND knowing where the phone number holders actually live??

  2. DanD

    @Botswana Bob

    I’ve been trying to find the answer to a similar question for months, in relation to federal polling, and I would assume the trend is as such that anyone under say 30 would probably not have a landline and thus be uncontactable by polling companies, and the problem is only going to grow. I think the much bandied about numbers in that contest would be rather different.

    (sorry to go slightly off-topic on a qld election story, but I feel the question is a good one)

  3. klewso

    There is a third alternative – considering the “rat-shot calibre of options available” :- what would happen if enough voters crossed out the candidates names on their ballot and “invited” the major parties to “RESUBMIT”, if they want your vote?
    This is for our governance after all – it’s not “a game” as they and their hierarchy seem to treat it, as “party spoils”, used to benefit their and their sponsors own interests.

  4. zut alors

    Botswana, you’ve beaten me to the punch. I suspect there may be more than a few in the younger demographic who would be inclined to vote Greens but, being uncontactable by polling companies, they go undetected and are ignored in the mix.

    Fortunately for the personnel at Newspoll and Galaxy, my landline is currently faulty so neither organisation will be subjected to an earful on why I despise their endless, irritating and meaningless polls.

  5. Rodney Topor

    It would be helpful and unusual if a journalist actually summarised and analysed the two main parties’ policies on a broad range of issues some time before the election and didn’t just endlessly repeat possibly meaningless survey results.

  6. John64

    I suspect the final result could actually be worse than predicted. Queensland has optional preferential voting – meaning he who gets the most primary votes, wins. It’ll be interesting to see how it falls out.

  7. LJG..............

    Another thing I was wondering about is what about those of us on the “Do Not Call” register – are we polled? We would would presumably be an interesting demographic in itself – you at least need an email address to go on the register (apart from those who have registered their elderly parents using a second email as I have done).

  8. Coaltopia

    We’re just replacing one bunch of fossil fools with another. And the environmental performance of Ted FailU and Barrel O’Fail doesn’t forecast well for Newman.

  9. Edward James

    The job of dismantling the dysfunctional Labor started in NSW during the last state election. The next step with some luck will play out in Queensland in March. With the damage done to all of us over many years by disrespectful politicians, it is time as the first step toward change to put as many Labor party members last on the ballot paper. When we make the effort to direct our own preferences and break up the dead wood political teams we may eventually get some respect from the elected representatives who replace them! Be willing to vote for change and change again. Edward James http://bit.ly/EJ_PNewsAds

  10. Elworthy Brent

    Botswana Bob, Dand, Zut Alors and others: The pollsters usually allow for such things.
    One method is to correct their data for factors such as those you mention. It’s called data weighting.
    Basically they compare the demographics of their sample with the known demographics of the population, courtesy of the latest Census, and apply one or more weighting factors to correct for such things as too few younger age voters.
    However, there are limitations to how much weighting can be applied – if you have next to no young people in the same, you can multiply those you have by a huge factor and still expect it to accurate.
    Another method is quota control. If you’ve ever been polled you’ll know how this goes – “Sorry Sir, we already have enough people in your age group – good night.”

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